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Unauthorized Immigration and Electoral Outcomes

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  • Baerg, Nicole Rae
  • Hotchkiss, Julie L.
  • Quispe-Agnoli, Myriam

Abstract

How do inflows of unauthorized immigrants shape elections? Political economy theories often yield competing predictions and mixed empirical results. The main hurdle of empirically evaluating the impact of unauthorized immigrants on election outcomes is finding reliable data that can measure unauthorized immigration flows over time. Using a unique methodology for identifying undocumented workers across counties in the state of Georgia in the United States, we find a positive relationship between the share of the county's workforce that is unauthorized and the share of votes going to Republicans in elections. Furthermore, we show that this effect is more pronounced for the presence of unauthorized immigrants than Hispanics; is stronger in counties with higher median household income; and is substantively larger in U.S. Congressional elections than Gubernatorial or Senatorial elections. We discuss which political economy theories are most consistent with this set of findings.

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  • Baerg, Nicole Rae & Hotchkiss, Julie L. & Quispe-Agnoli, Myriam, 2014. "Unauthorized Immigration and Electoral Outcomes," MPRA Paper 59864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Peri, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria & Steingress, Walter, 2015. "Immigration to the U.S.: A problem for the Republicans or the Democrats?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Anna Maria Mayda & Giovanni Peri & Walter Steingress, 2022. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 358-389, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; International Migration; Undocumented; Unauthorized;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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