IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/59091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Political Impacts of a Conditional Cash Transfer: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Julia, Tobias
  • Sumarto, Sudarno
  • Moody, Habib

Abstract

Several developing nations, including Indonesia, have experimented with conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to poor households during recent years. Since 2007, Indonesia has been carrying out a randomized CCT pilot program (PNPM Generasi) in 1,625 villages where funds are disbursed to communities rather than households, and local councils allocate the funds to public projects following community input. In this paper, we explore political outcomes associated with the program, including electoral rewards for incumbents, and political participation. By comparing regions receiving the program with a control group, we estimate the CCT’s effects on political behavior in the 2009 elections for President and the national legislative assembly, and we also explore its effects on local politics. We find that the CCT program increases vote shares for legislative candidates from the incumbent president’s party, improves households’ satisfaction with district-level government administrative services, and decreases competition among presidential candidates as measured by the Herfindahl- Hirschman Index (HHI). We do not find conclusive evidence to support the hypothesis that the program increases votes for the incumbent President, and we find no evidence that the program significantly increases voter turnout or affects village-level politics.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia, Tobias & Sumarto, Sudarno & Moody, Habib, 2014. "Assessing the Political Impacts of a Conditional Cash Transfer: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 59091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59091/1/MPRA_paper_59091.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuel Skoufias & Susan Wendy Parker, 2001. "Conditional Cash Transfers and Their Impact on Child Work and Schooling: Evidence from the PROGRESA Program in Mexico," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2001), pages 45-96, August.
    2. World Bank, 2006. "Making the New Indonesia Work for the Poor," World Bank Publications - Reports 8172, The World Bank Group.
    3. Ana L. De La O, 2013. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers Affect Electoral Behavior? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Svensson, Jakob & Björkman Nyqvist, Martina, 2007. "Power to the People: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment of a Community-Based Monitoring Project in Uganda," CEPR Discussion Papers 6344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Handa, Sudhanshu & Davis, Benjamin, 2006. "The experience of conditional cash transfers in Latin America and the Caribbean," ESA Working Papers 289060, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    6. Hastings, Justine S. & Kane, Thomas J. & Staiger, Douglas O. & Weinstein, Jeffrey M., 2007. "The effect of randomized school admissions on voter participation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(5-6), pages 915-937, June.
    7. Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2011. "Government Transfers and Political Support," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
    8. Gerber, Alan S. & Green, Donald P., 2000. "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(3), pages 653-663, September.
    9. Olken, Benjamin A., 2010. "Direct Democracy and Local Public Goods: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 243-267, May.
    10. Stokes, Susan C., 2005. "Perverse Accountability: A Formal Model of Machine Politics with Evidence from Argentina," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 315-325, August.
    11. repec:bla:rdevec:v:6:y:2002:i:2:p:163-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. James D. Fearon & Macartan Humphreys & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2009. "Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Post-conflict Liberia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 287-291, May.
    13. E. Ostrom, 2010. "A Behavioral Approach to the Rational Choice Theory of Collective Action Presidential Address, American political Science Association, 1997," Public administration issues, Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-52.
    14. Anne Daly & George Fane, 2002. "Anti-Poverty Programs in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 309-329.
    15. Parker, Susan W. & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2001. "Conditional cash transfers and their impact on child work and schooling," FCND briefs 123, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. repec:bla:devpol:v:24:y:2006:i:5:p:513-536 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Norbert Schady & Ariel Fiszbein & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Niall Keleher & Margaret Grosh & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2597.
    18. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "Participation and Development: Perspectives from the Comprehensive Development Paradigm," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 163-182, June.
    19. Alan Gerber & Donald Green, 2000. "The effects of canvassing, direct mail, and telephone contact on voter turnout: A field experiment," Natural Field Experiments 00248, The Field Experiments Website.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ankush Goyal & Rajender Kumar, 2022. "Does Social Welfare Programmes Influence Households Trust in Local Administration and Their Political Participation? Evidence from the MGNREG Scheme in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 16(3), pages 602-617, December.
    2. Duchoslav, Jan & Kenamu, Edwin & Thunde, Jack, 2023. "Targeting hunger or votes? The political economy of humanitarian transfers in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sheely, Ryan, 2015. "Mobilization, Participatory Planning Institutions, and Elite Capture: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Rural Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 251-266.
    2. Bratton, Michael, 2013. "Measuring Government Performance in Public Opinion Surveys in Africa: Towards Experiments?," WIDER Working Paper Series 023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Kitaura, Koji & Miyazawa, Kazutoshi, 2021. "Inequality and conditionality in cash transfers: Demographic transition and economic development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 276-287.
    4. Michael Bratton, 2013. "Measuring Government Performance in Public Opinion Surveys in Africa: Towards Experiments?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Dragan Filipovich & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Alma Santillán Hernández, 2018. "Campaign externalities, programmatic spending, and voting preferences in rural Mexico: The case of Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera programme," WIDER Working Paper Series 027, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Attanasio, Orazio & Polania-Reyes, Sandra & Pellerano, Luca, 2015. "Building social capital: Conditional cash transfers and cooperation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 22-39.
    7. Christina Hughes, 2019. "Reexamining the Influence of Conditional Cash Transfers on Migration From a Gendered Lens," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1573-1605, October.
    8. Carlos Chiapa & Silvia Prina, 2017. "Conditional Cash Transfers and Financial Access: Increasing the Bang for Each Transferred Buck?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35(1), pages 23-38, January.
    9. Sebastian Galiani & Nadya Hajj & Patrick J. McEwan & Pablo Ibarrarán & Nandita Krishnaswamy, 2019. "Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 232-260, August.
    10. Amarante, Véronica & Ferrando, Mery & Vigorito, Andrea, 2011. "School Attendance, Child Labor and Cash Transfer: An impact evaluation of PANES," PEP Policy Briefs 164618, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
    11. Cecchini, Simone & Madariaga, Aldo, 2011. "Conditional cash transfer programmes: the recent experience in Latin America and the Caribbean," Cuadernos de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 27855 edited by Eclac, January.
    12. Dragan Filipovich & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Alma Santillán Hernández, 2018. "Campaign externalities, programmatic spending, and voting preferences in rural Mexico: The case of Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera programme," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-27, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Jacobus de Hoop & Jed Friedman & Eeshani Kandpal & Furio C. Rosati, 2019. "Child Schooling and Child Work in the Presence of a Partial Education Subsidy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 503-531.
    14. Indunil De Silva & Sudarno Sumarto, 2015. "How do Educational Transfers Affect Child Labour Supply and Expenditures? Evidence from Indonesia of Impact and Flypaper Effects," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 483-507, December.
    15. Salomo Hirvonen & Jerome Schafer & Janne Tukiainen, 2022. "Policy Feedback and Civic Engagement: Evidence from the Finnish Basic Income Experiment," Discussion Papers 155, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    16. Del Rey, Elena & Estevan, Fernanda, 2013. "Conditional cash transfers and education quality in the presence of credit constraints," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-84.
    17. Aidt, Toke & Asatryan, Zareh & Badalyan, Lusine, 2024. "Political consequences of (consumer) debt relief," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. María Alzúa & Guillermo Cruces & Laura Ripani, 2013. "Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1255-1284, October.
    19. Pranab Bardhan & Sandip Mitra & Dilip Mookherjee & Anusha Nath, 2020. "How Do Voters Respond to Welfare vis-à-vis Public Good Programs? An Empirical Test for Clientelism," Staff Report 605, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    20. Jinnat Ara & Dipanwita Sarkar & Jayanta Sarkar, 2021. "Like mother like daughter? Occupational mobility among children under asset transfer program in Bangladesh," QuBE Working Papers 061, QUT Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional Cash Transfer; Political behavior; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.