IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/5718.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Non-renewable resources and growth, the case of the oil: a simple endogenous model

Author

Listed:
  • Fabbri, Giorgio

Abstract

We present a growth model in which a non-renewable resource enters in the production function. The non-renewable resource is supposed to be sold by an external monopolistic that maximizes his intertemporal discounted cash flow. This approach allows to endogenize the price of the resource. We use the historical data of the oil price and of the oil production to calibrate the model. The forecasts of the model about the evolution of the GDP growth rate, the price and amount of the production of the oil are described. The formulation of the model is quite easy but it hallows to obtain a good fit with the recent data and especially with the behavior of the three main quantities considered (oil price, oil supply and GDP growth rate) in the last years. Indeed the recent data suggest a new scenario and probably a progressive reduction of the world oil supply (and an indefinite growth of the prices). The model suggests that such a behavior is not due to the imminent physical end of the oil but has a clear economic explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabbri, Giorgio, 2007. "Non-renewable resources and growth, the case of the oil: a simple endogenous model," MPRA Paper 5718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5718
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5718/1/MPRA_paper_5718.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Lawrence Goulder & Gretchen Daily & Paul Ehrlich & Geoffrey Heal & Simon Levin & Karl-Göran Mäler & Stephen Schneider & David Starrett & Brian Walker, 2004. "Are We Consuming Too Much?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 147-172, Summer.
    2. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: The Competitive Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 139-152.
    3. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and the Environment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 7-71, March.
    4. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    5. Eric Neumayer, 2000. "Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 307-335, July.
    6. Mitra, Tapan, 1980. "On Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources: Existence and Characterization Results," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1431-1450, September.
    7. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:3:p:307-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Joseph Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 123-137.
    9. Aage, Hans, 1984. "Economic Arguments on the Sufficiency of Natural Resources," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(1), pages 105-113, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bazhanov, Andrei & Belyaev, Alexander, 2009. "Адекватность Закрытой Модели Для Российской Экономики В Задаче Сравнительного Анализа Энергетической Стратегии России [Adequacy of a closed model for Russian economy in the problem of comparative a," MPRA Paper 15109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andre, Francisco J. & Cerda, Emilio, 2005. "On natural resource substitution," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 233-246, December.
    3. Adrian Boos, 2015. "Genuine Savings as an Indicator for “Weak” Sustainability: Critical Survey and Possible Ways forward in Practical Measuring," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-37, April.
    4. Koji Tokimatsu & Rintaro Yamaguchi & Masayuki Sato & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2011. "Measuring future dynamics of genuine saving with changes of population and technology: application of an integrated assessment model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 703-725, August.
    5. Millar, Neal & McLaughlin, Eoin & Börger, Tobias, 2019. "The Circular Economy: Swings and Roundabouts?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 11-19.
    6. Maciej Malaczewski, 2018. "Natural Resources As An Energy Source In A Simple Economic Growth Model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 362-380, October.
    7. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    8. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    9. Lizhan Cao & Zhongying Qi, 2017. "Theoretical Explanations for the Inverted-U Change of Historical Energy Intensity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Klepper, Gernot & Stahler, Frank, 1998. "Sustainabilty in Closed and Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 488-506, August.
    11. Cheviakov, Alexei F. & Hartwick, John, 2009. "Constant per capita consumption paths with exhaustible resources and decaying produced capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2969-2973, October.
    12. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2024. "Effects of exhaustible resources and declining population on economic growth with Hotelling’s rule," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Le, Thanh & Le Van, Cuong, 2018. "Research and development and sustainable growth over alternative types of natural resources," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 215-229.
    14. McGrath, Luke & Hynes, Stephen & McHale, John, 2019. "Augmenting the World Bank's estimates: Ireland's genuine savings through boom and bust," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Bazhanov, A., 2011. "The Dependence of the Potential Sustainability of a Resource Economy on the Initial State: a Comparison of Models Using the Example of Russian Oil Extraction," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 77-100.
    16. Pommeret, Aude & Ricci, Francesco & Schubert, Katheline, 2022. "Critical raw materials for the energy transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Bokpin, Godfred A., 2017. "Foreign direct investment and environmental sustainability in Africa: The role of institutions and governance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 239-247.
    18. Eoin McLaughlin & Cristián Ducoing & Les Oxley, 2024. "Tracing Sustainability in the Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850–2018," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bosi Stefano & Ragot Lionel, 2013. "On the Optimal Control of Pollution in a Human Capital Growth Model," Mathematical Economics Letters, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 9-15, October.
    20. Matthias Kalkuhl & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2017. "Ramsey meets Thünen: the impact of land taxes on economic development and land conservation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(2), pages 350-380, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-renewable resources; Oil; Endogenous Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.