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Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe

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  • Degiannakis, Stavros
  • Duffy, David
  • Filis, George

Abstract

The paper investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2009. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle synchronisation correspond to institutional changes that have taken place at a European level. Business cycle synchronisation has moved in a direction positive for the operation of a single currency suggesting that the common monetary policy is less costly in terms of lost flexibility at the national level. Thus, any questions regarding the optimality and sustainability of the common currency area in Europe should not be attributed to the lack of cyclical synchronisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe," MPRA Paper 52925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52925
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52925/1/MPRA_paper_52925.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Svatopluk KAPOUNEK & Jitka POMĚNKOVÁ, 2013. "The endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria in the context of financial crisis: Evidence from the time-frequency domain analysis," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(9), pages 389-395.
    2. Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera & Vanesa Avalos-Gaytán & Yajaira Cardona Valdés, 2019. "Synchronization of globalized economies," Working Papers 1909, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    3. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jan Sečkař, 2012. "Economic cycle synchronization in the context of financial crisis: empirical evidence of Denmark, Sweden and United Kingdom," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(7), pages 155-162.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scalar-BEKK; Multivariate Riskmetrics; time varying correlation; EU business cycle; business cycle synchronisation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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