IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/50834.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multivariate–Based Granger Causality between Financial Deepening and Poverty: The Case of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad
  • Ur Rehman, Ijaz

Abstract

This paper deals with the empirical investigation of causal relationship between financial deepening, economic growth and poverty reduction using quarter frequency data in case of Pakistan over the period of 1972-2011. We applied the ARDL bounds testing approach by incorporating structural breaks stemming in the series. The order of integration of the variables is examined by applying structural break unit root test. Our empirical exercise indicated that long run relationship between financial deepening, economic growth and poverty reduction exists in case of Pakistan. The causality analysis implied that causality results are sensitive with the use of proxy for poverty reduction as well as methodology to be applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz, 2013. "Multivariate–Based Granger Causality between Financial Deepening and Poverty: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 50834, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Oct 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50834/1/MPRA_paper_50834.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oriana Bandiera & Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2000. "Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 239-263, May.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Muhammad Tahir, 2008. "An Investigation of the Effectiveness of Financial Development in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 27-44, Jul-Dec.
    4. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Kangni Kpodar, 2011. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There be a Benefit without a Cost?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 143-163.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. A. Sen, 2003. "Limiting behaviour of Dickey-Fuller t-tests under the crash model alternative," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 421-429, December.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    11. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2006. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis for Cointegrated Variables," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 6, pages 73-86, Springer.
    12. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012. "How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? Empirical analysis using state-level panel data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 395-408, March.
    13. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    14. Hossein Jalilian & Colin Kirkpatrick, 2005. "Does Financial Development Contribute to Poverty Reduction?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 636-656.
    15. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Trade, Financial and Growth Nexus in Pakistan," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 6, pages 1-24, December.
    16. Mohammad Shahbaz, 2009. "A Reassessment of Finance-Growth Nexus for Pakistan: Under the Investigation of FMOLS and DOLS Techniques," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 65-80, January.
    17. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Finance-growth-poverty nexus in South Africa: A dynamic causality linkage," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 320-325, March.
    18. Alemayehu Geda & Abebe Shimeles & Daniel Zerfu Gurara, 2006. "Finance and Poverty in Ethiopia: A Household Level Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-51, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye, 2011. "Financial development index and economic growth: empirical evidence from India," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 98-111, March.
    20. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    21. M Mafizur Rahman & M Salahuddin, 2010. "The determinants of economic growth in Pakistan: Does stock market development play a major role?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(2), pages 69-86, September.
    22. Peter Quartey, 2005. "Financial Sector Development, Savings Mobilization and Poverty Reduction in Ghana," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-71, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    24. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    25. Jalilian, Hossein & Kirkpatrick, Colin, 2002. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 97-108, April.
    26. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2010. "Is financial development a spur to poverty reduction? Kenya's experience," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 343-353, August.
    27. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Kangni Kpodar, 2008. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There Be a Benefit Without a Cost?," Post-Print hal-00266099, HAL.
    28. Ang, James B. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2007. "Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 215-233, September.
    29. Abdul Jalil & Mete Feridun, 2011. "Impact of financial development on economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 71-80.
    30. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2010. "Financial deepening and poverty reduction in Zambia: an empirical investigation," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 41-53, January.
    31. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sjö, Bo & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "The causal nexus between financial development and economic growth in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 701-707.
    32. Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Income inequality‐economic growth and non‐linearity: a case of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(8), pages 613-636, July.
    33. Haroon Jamal, 2006. "Does Inequality Matter for Poverty Reduction? Evidence from Pakistan’s Poverty Trends," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 439-459.
    34. Patrick Honohan, 2004. "Financial development, growth, and poverty: how close are the links?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3203, The World Bank.
    35. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    36. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2007. "Finance, inequality and the poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 27-49, March.
    37. Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Filippidis & Claire Economidou, 2007. "Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 179-198, April.
    38. Gazi Salah Uddin & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Nasim Sydee, 2012. "The Casual Nexus of Banking Sector Development and Poverty Reduction in Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 304-311.
    39. Colin Kirkpatrick, 2000. "Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 363-388.
    40. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam, 2011. "Financial Development And Income Inequality In Pakistan: An Application Of Ardl Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 35-58, March.
    41. Roger Kelly & George Mavrotas, 2003. "Financial Sector Development - Futile or Fruitful? An Examination of the Determinants of Savings in Sri Lanka," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-14, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Acheampong, Alex O. & Appiah-Otoo, Isaac & Dzator, Janet & Agyemang, Kwabena Koforobour, 2021. "Remittances, financial development and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for post-COVID-19 macroeconomic policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1365-1387.
    2. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & James Temitope Dada & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Modelling asymmetric structure in the finance-poverty nexus: empirical insights from an emerging market economy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 453-487, February.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Khalid & Nawaz, Kishwar & Ali, Amjad, 2019. "Modelling the gender inequality in Pakistan: A macroeconomic perspective," MPRA Paper 97502, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2019.
    4. Mercy. T. Musakwa & N. M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Remittance Inflows and Poverty Dynamics in South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, December.
    5. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
    6. Abosedra, Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwar, 2015. "Modeling Causality between Financial Deepening and Poverty Reduction in Egypt," MPRA Paper 67166, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2015.
    7. Sheilla Nyasha Author-Name: Yvonne Gwenhure & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Poverty and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: A Multivariate Causal Linkage," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 343-359, January-M.
    8. Appiah-Otoo, Isaac & Chen, Xudong & Song, Na & Dumor, Koffi, 2022. "Financial development, institutional improvement, poverty reduction: The multiple challenges in West Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1296-1312.
    9. Jelson Serafim, 2021. "Financial deepening, Stock market, Inequality and Poverty: Some African Evidence," Working Papers REM 2021/0177, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Saqlain Latif Satti & Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Fozia Hayat & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2016. "Economic Growth and Inflow of Remittances: Do They Combat Poverty in an Emerging Economy?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 1119-1134, July.
    11. Nasreddine Kaidi & Sami Mensi & Mehdi Ben Amor, 2019. "Financial Development, Institutional Quality and Poverty Reduction: Worldwide Evidence," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 131-156, January.
    12. Dzator, Janet & Acheampong, Alex O. & Appiah-Otoo, Isaac & Dzator, Michael, 2023. "Leveraging digital technology for development: Does ICT contribute to poverty reduction?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    13. Jorge Garza-Rodriguez, 2018. "Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-9, September.
    14. Nasreddine Kaidi & Sami Mensi, 2020. "Financial Development, Income Inequality, and Poverty Reduction: Democratic Versus Autocratic Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(4), pages 1358-1381, December.
    15. Nasreddine Kaidi & Sami Mensi, 2018. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: A Study of Middle-Income Countries," Working Papers 1216, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Sep 2018.
    16. Musakwa, Mercy T & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Remittance and poverty nexus in Botswana: A multivariate approach," Working Papers 25749, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
    2. Abosedra, Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwar, 2015. "Modeling Causality between Financial Deepening and Poverty Reduction in Egypt," MPRA Paper 67166, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2015.
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Aviral Tiwari & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi, 2015. "Financial Development and Income Inequality: Is There Any Financial Kuznets Curve in Iran?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 357-382, November.
    4. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012. "How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? Empirical analysis using state-level panel data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 395-408, March.
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    6. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "Does Financial Development Lead to Poverty Reduction in China? Time Series Evidence," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(1), pages 99-112.
    7. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Financial Development, Domestic Savings and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan: Using Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(5), pages 59-73, May.
    8. Madhu Sehrawat & A. K. Giri, 2018. "The impact of financial development, economic growth, income inequality on poverty: evidence from India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1585-1602, December.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Madhu Sehrawat & A. Giri, 2016. "Financial development, poverty and rural-urban income inequality: evidence from South Asian countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 577-590, March.
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2010. "Does financial development increase rural-urban income inequality? Cointegration analysis in the case of Indian economy," MPRA Paper 27093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "The Nexus between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317, April.
    13. Inoue, Takeshi & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2011. "Financial permeation as a role of microfinance : has microfinance actually been helpful to the poor?," IDE Discussion Papers 299, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    14. Phouphet KYOPHILAVONG & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Laos," Working Papers 2014-447, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    15. Orazaliyev Kanat & Zhijun Yan & Muhammad Mansoor Asghar & Syed Anees Haider Zaidi & Abdul Sami, 2024. "Gender Inequality and Poverty: The Role of Financial Development in Mitigating Poverty in Pakistan," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 11848-11876, September.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    18. Muhammad Ahad & Adeel Ahmad Dar & Muhammad Imran, 2019. "Does Financial Development Promote Industrial Production in Pakistan? Evidence from Combined Cointegration and Causality Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(2), pages 297-312, April.
    19. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Reza, Sherafatian-Jahromi & Muhammad, Nasir Malik, 2012. "Linkages between Defence Spending and Income Inequality in Iran," MPRA Paper 41983, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2012.
    20. Parewangi, Andi M. Alfian & Iskandar, Azwar, 2020. "The Nexus of Islamic Finance and Poverty," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(2), pages 111-139, December.
    21. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Shahbaz Muhammad & Butt, Muhammad Sabihuddin, 2011. "Effect of financial development on agricultural growth in Pakistan: new extensions from bounds test to level relationships and granger causality tests," MPRA Paper 34162, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2011.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial deepening; economic growth; poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.