IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03558090.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Causality Between Financial Deepening and Poverty Reduction in Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Salah Abosedra
  • Muhammad Shahbaz
  • Kishwar Nawaz

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This study deals with the linkages between financial development and poverty reduction in Egypt using data for the period of 1975Q1-2011Q4. The stationarity properties of the variables are tested by applying Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root test. The structural break autoregressive distributed lag-bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to examine long run relationship between the variables. Our results show evidence of cointegration which confirms the presence of long run relationship between financial deepening, economic growth and poverty reduction. The VECM Granger causality results are somewhat interesting. The findings indicate that financial development reduces poverty when domestic credit to private sector is used as proxy for financial development. The direct channel that financial sector development can lead to enabling the poor to access or broaden their access to financial services, such as credit and insurance-risk services, is therefore confirmed in case of Egypt. Furthermore, the indirect channel where financial sector development contributes to poverty reduction through economic growth is also confirmed for Egypt. This is only found when M2 is used as a proxy for financial development and infant mortality per capita as proxy for poverty. We find that the causal relationship between financial development and poverty reduction is sensitive to the proxy used to measure the level of financial development and the level of poverty. When the domestic credit to the private sector is used as a proxy for financial development, causality is found to prevail between financial development and poverty reduction in short run. However, when the broad money supply is used as a proxy, we find that financial development causes growth which in turn causes poverty reduction. These results show that the poverty-reduction programs are desirable not only because they reduce poverty but also because they possibly lead to further development of financial sect
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Salah Abosedra & Muhammad Shahbaz & Kishwar Nawaz, 2016. "Modeling Causality Between Financial Deepening and Poverty Reduction in Egypt," Post-Print hal-03558090, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03558090
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-015-0929-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:econom:v:63:y:1996:i:250:p:s103-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Aviral Tiwari & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi, 2015. "Financial Development and Income Inequality: Is There Any Financial Kuznets Curve in Iran?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 357-382, November.
    4. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Kangni Kpodar, 2011. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There be a Benefit without a Cost?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 143-163.
    7. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2010. "Financial deepening and poverty reduction in Zambia: an empirical investigation," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 41-53, January.
    8. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    9. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    10. Alif Darrat, 1999. "Are Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Causally Related? Another Look at the Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 19-35.
    11. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    12. Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-184, January.
    13. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
    14. Ijaz Rehman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Multivariate-based Granger causality between financial deepening and poverty: the case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3221-3241, November.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    16. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton, 1997. "A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(2), pages 151-172.
    17. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    18. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2006. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis for Cointegrated Variables," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 6, pages 73-86, Springer.
    19. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    20. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2013. "Is financial development pro-poor or pro-rich? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 489-500, December.
    21. Hossein Jalilian & Colin Kirkpatrick, 2005. "Does Financial Development Contribute to Poverty Reduction?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 636-656.
    22. Mr. Mohsin S. Khan & Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 2000. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Overview," IMF Working Papers 2000/209, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Patrick Honohan, 2004. "Financial development, growth, and poverty: how close are the links?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3203, The World Bank.
    24. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Finance-growth-poverty nexus in South Africa: A dynamic causality linkage," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 320-325, March.
    25. Alemayehu Geda & Abebe Shimeles & Daniel Zerfu Gurara, 2006. "Finance and Poverty in Ethiopia: A Household Level Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-51, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    26. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    27. Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammed Shahbaz & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction Nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Working Papers 2014-291, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    28. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Finance, inequality, and poverty: cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3338, The World Bank.
    29. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2007. "Finance, inequality and the poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 27-49, March.
    30. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    31. Gazi Salah Uddin & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Nasim Sydee, 2012. "The Casual Nexus of Banking Sector Development and Poverty Reduction in Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 304-311.
    32. Colin Kirkpatrick, 2000. "Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 363-388.
    33. M Mafizur Rahman & M Salahuddin, 2010. "The determinants of economic growth in Pakistan: Does stock market development play a major role?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(2), pages 69-86, September.
    34. Peter Quartey, 2005. "Financial Sector Development, Savings Mobilization and Poverty Reduction in Ghana," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-71, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    35. Zhuang, Juzhong & Gunatilake, Herath & Niimi, Yoko & Ehsan Khan, Muhammad & Jiang, Yi & Hasan, Rana & Khor, Niny & S. Lagman-Martin, Anneli & Bracey, Pamela & Huang, Biao, 2009. "Financial Sector Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction: A Literature Review," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 173, Asian Development Bank.
    36. Jalilian, Hossein & Kirkpatrick, Colin, 2002. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 97-108, April.
    37. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2010. "Is financial development a spur to poverty reduction? Kenya's experience," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 343-353, August.
    38. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Kangni Kpodar, 2008. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There Be a Benefit Without a Cost?," Post-Print hal-00266099, HAL.
    39. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 2002. "Why has economic growth been more pro-poor in some states of India than others?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 381-400, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ijaz Rehman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Multivariate-based Granger causality between financial deepening and poverty: the case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3221-3241, November.
    2. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
    3. Boukhatem, Jamel, 2016. "Assessing the direct effect of financial development on poverty reduction in a panel of low- and middle-income countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-230.
    4. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "Does Financial Development Lead to Poverty Reduction in China? Time Series Evidence," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(1), pages 99-112.
    5. Madhu Sehrawat & A. K. Giri, 2018. "The impact of financial development, economic growth, income inequality on poverty: evidence from India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1585-1602, December.
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Aviral Tiwari & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi, 2015. "Financial Development and Income Inequality: Is There Any Financial Kuznets Curve in Iran?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 357-382, November.
    7. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012. "How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? Empirical analysis using state-level panel data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 395-408, March.
    8. Madhu Sehrawat & A. Giri, 2016. "Financial development, poverty and rural-urban income inequality: evidence from South Asian countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 577-590, March.
    9. Acheampong, Alex O. & Appiah-Otoo, Isaac & Dzator, Janet & Agyemang, Kwabena Koforobour, 2021. "Remittances, financial development and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for post-COVID-19 macroeconomic policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1365-1387.
    10. Gazi Salah Uddin & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Nasim Sydee, 2012. "The Casual Nexus of Banking Sector Development and Poverty Reduction in Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 304-311.
    11. Nasreddine Kaidi & Sami Mensi, 2018. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: A Study of Middle-Income Countries," Working Papers 1216, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Sep 2018.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Financial Development, Domestic Savings and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan: Using Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(5), pages 59-73, May.
    13. Seven, Unal & Coskun, Yener, 2016. "Does financial development reduce income inequality and poverty? Evidence from emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 34-63.
    14. Ho, Sin-Yu & Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2018. "Financial Development, Growth and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 87121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dewi Sovia & Abd. Majid M. Shabri & Aliasuddin & Kassim Salina, 2018. "Dynamics of Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: The Indonesian Experience," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 17-30, June.
    16. Appiah, Michael & Frowne, Doreen Idan & Tetteh, Derrick, 2020. "Re-examining the Nexus Between Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 27(2).
    17. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & James Temitope Dada & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Modelling asymmetric structure in the finance-poverty nexus: empirical insights from an emerging market economy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 453-487, February.
    18. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2018. "Finance-growth-poverty nexus: a re-assessment of the trickle-down hypothesis in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 221-247, August.
    19. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mita Bhattacharya & Mantu Kumar Mahalik, 2017. "Finance and income inequality in Kazakhstan: evidence since transition with policy suggestions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(52), pages 5337-5351, November.
    20. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Finance-growth-poverty nexus in South Africa: A dynamic causality linkage," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 320-325, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03558090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.