IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/44531.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Managing the Uncertainty in the Hodrick Prescott Filter

Author

Listed:
  • Leon, Jorge

Abstract

This paper modifies the standard Hodrick Prescot Filter in order to reduce the problem of misleading predictive outcome when used with updated information. The modification allow for a more accurate estimation of output gap, as well as the introduction of confidence intervals that permit a better understanding of the uncertainty related to the estimation of the filter. Also improve the efficiency using a correction for autocorrelation in the errors of estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon, Jorge, 2012. "Managing the Uncertainty in the Hodrick Prescott Filter," MPRA Paper 44531, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44531
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44531/1/MPRA_paper_44531.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Marcet & Morte O. Ravn, "undated". "The HP-Filter in Cross-Country Comparisons," Studies on the Spanish Economy 100, FEDEA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    2. Facundo Piguillem & Anderson Schneider, 2013. "Heterogeneous Labor Skills, The Median Voter and Labor Taxes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 332-349, April.
    3. Lankester-Campos, Valerie & Loaiza-Marín, Kerry & Monge-Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction function," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    4. Lores, Francisco Xavier, 2001. "Cyclical behaviour of consumption of non-durable goods: Spain versus U.S.A," UC3M Working papers. Economics we014710, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. Jorge Enrique Restrepo & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Regularidades Empíricas de la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 301, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Patricia Aranda-Cuéllar & José María López-Morales & María Jesús Such-Devesa, 2021. "Winter tourism dependence: A cyclical and cointegration analysis. Case study for the Alps," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(7), pages 1540-1560, November.
    7. Pablo García S. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2003. "Money and Inflation in an Inflation-Tageting Regime," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(1), pages 21-47, April.
    8. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2015. "Economic stabilization in the post-crisis world: Are fiscal rules the answer?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-101.
    9. Mr. Erwin H Tiongson & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence From Global Food Aid," IMF Working Papers 2003/040, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Arturo Antón-Sarabia, 2009. "Efectos del ciclo económico en EE. UU. sobre la producción y el empleo en México," Working Papers DTE 456, CIDE, División de Economía.
    11. Choudhary, Ali & Hanif, Nadim & Iqbal, Javed, 2013. "On smoothing macroeconomic time series using HP and modified HP filter," MPRA Paper 45630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Miroslav Plašil, 2011. "Potenciální produkt, mezera výstupu a míra nejistoty spojená s jejich určením při použití Hodrick-Prescottova filtru [Potential Product, Output Gap and Uncertainty Rate Associated with Their Determ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 490-507.
    13. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    14. Coutiño, Alfredo, 2016. "Pitfalls in monetary policy decisions based on the output gap," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 54-64.
    15. Ngwa Edielle, T. H. Jackson, 2006. "Soutenabilité des finances publiques au Cameroun : Approche de Bohn (1998) [Testing Fiscal sustainability in Cameroon : Approach of Bohn (1998)]," MPRA Paper 9738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Francisco de Castro & Francisco Martí & Antonio Montesinos & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "Fiscal policies in Spain: Main stylises facts revisited," Working Papers 1408, Banco de España.
    18. José María López Morales & María Jesús Such Devesa, 2017. "Business cycle and external dependence on tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 187-199, February.
    19. Rafael Doménech & Víctor Gómez, 2005. "Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(2), pages 259-288, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Filter; Hodrick Prescott; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44531. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.