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Chinese monetary policy – from theory to practice

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  • Körner, Finn Marten
  • Ehnts, Dirk H.

Abstract

Chinese monetary policy constitutes a marked example of a clash between theory and practice. In theory, a fixed exchange rate regime with capital mobility turns the money supply into an endogenous variable while expansionary pressure can be alleviated by the central bank by foreign currency transactions. For China, this standard view is contended by the 'compensation thesis' as proposed by Lavoie and Wang (2012) according to which the central bank maintains discretion over money supply by using alternative balance sheet instruments. In this paper we show that the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) activities can be better characterized by the 'compensation thesis' view of alternative money supply operations. In addition, we can thus characterize the PBoC's policy stance as being directed at targeting inflation and exchange rate stability via a five-phase policy mix using sterilization bonds and reserve requirements according to macroeconomic conditions. After downgrading the loans-to-deposits ratio of 75% to the status of an indicator and given the rise in lending despite a high reserve ratio, the quantity-driven approach to monetary policy of the PBoC faces an uncertain future.

Suggested Citation

  • Körner, Finn Marten & Ehnts, Dirk H., 2013. "Chinese monetary policy – from theory to practice," MPRA Paper 44264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44264
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Mundell, 1960. "The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 74(2), pages 227-257.
    2. Buiter, Willem, 2008. "Can Central Banks Go Broke?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Marc Lavoie & Peng Wang, 2012. "The ‘compensation’ thesis, as exemplified by the case of the Chinese central bank," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 287-301, April.
    4. Geiger, Michael, 2006. "Monetary Policy in China (1994-2004): Targets, Instruments and their Effectiveness," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 68, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2010. "Chinese monetary policy and the dollar peg," Discussion Papers 2010/35, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_013 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. China Credit Crunch – it’s the central bank, stupid!
      by Dirk in econoblog101 on 2013-06-20 18:55:49

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huiqing Li & Yixuan Xu & Ying Zhuang, 2021. "China's trilemma: monetary policy autonomy in an economy with a managed floating exchange rate," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 99-107, May.
    2. Eli Direye & Tarron Khemraj, 2022. "Central bank securities and foreign exchange market intervention in a developing economy," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 280-297, February.
    3. Direye, Eli & Khemraj, Tarron, 2021. "Central bank securities and FX market intervention in a developing economy," MPRA Paper 111533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Aug 2021.
    4. Stefan Angrick, 2015. "Global Liquidity and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMK Working Paper 159-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chineses monetary policy; Nominal exchange rate; Money supply; Mundell-Fleming; Compensation thesis; Modern Money Theory; Sterilization; Loans-to-deposit ratio; Reserve requirement ratio; Credit and money suppply growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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