IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/apacel/v35y2021i1p99-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's trilemma: monetary policy autonomy in an economy with a managed floating exchange rate

Author

Listed:
  • Huiqing Li
  • Yixuan Xu
  • Ying Zhuang

Abstract

Mundell's trilemma theory says that capital flow, exchange rate stability, and monetary policy autonomy cannot be achieved simultaneously. Using monthly data from the People's Bank of China from 1999 to 2019, we find that the trilemma theory is not nearly as tight in China's practice as in theory, and the central bank can internally offset the effect of exchange rate volatility by ways other than the monetary base (such as central bank securities). Our results also indicate that, before 2012, monetary policy autonomy in China was weak due to the problem of ‘funds outstanding for foreign exchange’. With the reform of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate system in 2005, the effectiveness of central bank securities in compensating for the flow of foreign exchange reserves has gradually been strengthened in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Huiqing Li & Yixuan Xu & Ying Zhuang, 2021. "China's trilemma: monetary policy autonomy in an economy with a managed floating exchange rate," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 99-107, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:apacel:v:35:y:2021:i:1:p:99-107
    DOI: 10.1111/apel.12321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/apel.12321
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/apel.12321?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Sunanda SeN, 2014. "Financial integration and national autonomy: China and India," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 20-44, January.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 298-330.
    5. Stefan Angrick, 2018. "Global liquidity and monetary policy autonomy: an examination of open-economy policy constraints [Rapports entre l’évolution de la balance des paiements et l’évolution de la liquidité interne, pp. ," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 117-135.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2012. "Test of the trilemma for five selected Asian countries and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(17), pages 1735-1739.
    7. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 2016/108, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Körner, Finn Marten & Ehnts, Dirk H., 2013. "Chinese monetary policy – from theory to practice," MPRA Paper 44264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ying Wu, 2023. "Monetary sterilization response to the movements in exchange rates and official net foreign assets: a case of China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 821-838, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgios Georgiadis & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_009, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    3. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Monetary Policy Spillovers under Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 98852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi & Kwanho Shin, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Insulation in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 565-618, July.
    5. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    7. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    8. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    10. Amr S. Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2015. "Understanding the dynamics of the macroeconomic trilemma," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 32-64, January.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 75-108, June.
    12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
    13. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: A Guide for Developing Countries Based on the Recent Literature," ADBI Working Papers 804, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    14. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Wei Shi, 2016. "Trilemma or Dilemma: Inspecting the Heterogeneous Response of Local Currency Interest Rates to Foreign Rates," IMF Working Papers 2016/075, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2016. "La modelización de la demanda de turismo de economías emergentes: el caso de la llegada de turistas rusos a España," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 39(110), pages 112-125, Mayo.
    16. Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & González-Gómez, Manuel & Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad, 2018. "Main determinants of export-oriented bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) demand from the north-western regions of Spain," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 112-119.
    17. Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary independence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 213-225, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2018. "The international credit channel of U.S. monetary policy transmission to developing countries: Evidence from trade data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 33-41.
    19. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," Working Papers id:12586, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:apacel:v:35:y:2021:i:1:p:99-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14678411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.