IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2012i1-2p97-116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinanty polityki pieniężnej Ludowego Banku Chin

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Borowski
  • Adam Czerniak

Abstract

W artykule przedstawiono wyniki analizy empirycznej determinant polityki monetarnej w Chinach w okresie od stycznia 2000 r. do września 2010 r. Analizę przeprowadzono z wykorzystaniem modeli uporządkowanych zmiennych zależnych. W badaniu uwzględniono 8 możliwych zmiennych, które mogły istotnie wpływać na prawdopodobieństwo zmian rocznej stopy depozytowej oraz stopy rezerwy obowiązkowej dla 6 największych banków: realną roczną dynamikę PKB w Chinach, wskaźnik wzrostu cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych (inflację CPI), dynamikę cen nieruchomości w 35 największych aglomeracjach Chin, dynamikę sprzedaży detalicznej dóbr konsumpcyjnych, tempo wzrostu rezerw walutowych Chin, dynamikę eksportu, tempo wzrostu wartości kredytów dla sektora niefinansowego oraz wskaźnik koniunktury PMI dla przetwórstwa przemysłowego w kategorii zatrudnienie. W badanym okresie istotny wpływ na decyzje Ludowego Banku Chin dotyczące stopy rezerw obowiązkowych miała bieżąca dynamika PKB i opóźniony wskaźnik wzrostu cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych. Z kolei przyszłe wartości tych zmiennych były czynnikami wpływającymi na poziom stopy depozytowej. Sugeruje to, że mimo braku niezależności w zakresie kształtowania narzędzi polityki monetarnej decyzje Ludowego Banku Chin dotyczące stóp procentowych były w pewnym stopniu podyktowane oceną perspektyw wzrostu gospodarczego i inflacji. Badanie wykazało również istotny wpływ dynamiki cen nieruchomości na poziom stopy rezerw obowiązkowych. Może to stanowić zwiastun zmian w funkcjach reakcji głównych banków centralnych w kierunku równoczesnego wykorzystywania instrumentów polityki pieniężnej i narzędzi polityki makroostrożnościowej w celu przeciwdziałania bańkom spekulacyjnym na rynku nieruchomości. Zastosowana metoda badawcza nie pozwala stwierdzić, w jakim stopniu luka popytowa i odchylenie inflacji od celu wpływały na decyzje Ludowego Banku Chin w analizowanym okresie. Rola tych czynników w polityce monetarnej w Chinach stanowi zatem interesujący obszar dla dalszych badań.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Borowski & Adam Czerniak, 2012. "Determinanty polityki pieniężnej Ludowego Banku Chin," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 97-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2012:i:1-2:p:97-116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.journalssystem.com/gna/pdf-101030-33178
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2010. "Chinese monetary policy and the dollar peg," Discussion Papers 2010/35, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Cramer,J. S., 2011. "Logit Models from Economics and Other Fields," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521188036, January.
    4. Liu, Li-gang & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "A New Keynesian model for analysing monetary policy in Mainland China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 540-551, December.
    5. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2009. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    7. Fan, Longzhen & Yu, Yihong & Zhang, Chu, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of China's monetary policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 358-371, June.
    8. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "Reaction Functions of Bank of England MPC Members: Insiders versus Outsiders," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0606, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    9. Bofinger, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy: Goals, Institutions, Strategies, and Instruments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248568.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    11. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masahiro Kawai & Li-Gang Liu, 2015. "Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 32(1), pages 49-89, March.
    2. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2014. "The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China: A Discrete Choice Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-12, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2010. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 425-444, October.
    4. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Chang, Long, 2021. "Monetary–fiscal policy regime and macroeconomic dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 121-135.
    5. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "The determinants of the benchmark interest rates in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 395-417.
    7. Marjan Petreski & Branimir Jovanovic, 2013. "Monetary Policy in China: The Role of the Qualitative Instruments," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 437-442, November.
    8. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    9. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    10. Chen, Qianying & Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2012. "Market and non-market monetary policy tools in a calibrated DSGE model for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    11. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    12. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Hostland & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/256, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    14. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is monetary policy forward-looking in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 4-14.
    15. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Riikka Nuutilainen, 2015. "Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 461-486, August.
    18. Bofinger, Peter & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2002. "The BMW model: Simple macroeconomics for closed and open economies a requiem for the IS/LM-AS/AD and the Mundell-Fleming model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 35, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    19. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Chinese Monetary Expansion and the US Economy," Working Papers 16874, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 05 Aug 2013.
    20. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Carton, Benjamin & Gauvin, Ludovic, 2013. "China and global rebalancing: A two-country approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 118-139.
    21. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chiny; Ludowy Bank Chin; polityka pieniężna; funkcja reakcji w polityce pieniężnej;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2012:i:1-2:p:97-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.