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Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy

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  • Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas

Abstract

Recent academic studies have shown that since the mid-nineties, the passthrough of exogenous oil shocks into headline inflation has been increasing while the passthrough into core inflation seems to have ceased. This paper explores the implications in term of commodity allocation for inflation hedging portfolios these recent works have paved the way for. We proceed by first evidencing a linkage between the headline to core inflation spread and tradable commodities. We subsequently envisage exploiting it threefold: Firstly by devising an efficient strategic allocation using core inflation forecasts to determine the commodities natural weight in the portfolio as dictated by our macro approach. Secondly by testing a tactical allocation strategy which would time the passthrough cycle to determine dynamically the optimal share of commodities in the allocation. And eventually by proposing a strategy to arbitrage core inflation linked derivatives by cross-replicating them with commodity portfolios.

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  • Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42852
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    Cited by:

    1. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas & Palidda, Ernesto, 2012. "Swapping Headline for Core Inflation: An Asset Liability Management Approach," MPRA Paper 42853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2012.
    2. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Alternative Inflation Hedging Portfolio Strategies: Going Forward Under Immoderate Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 42854, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Hedging; Portfolio Allocation; Commodities; Core Inflation; Global Macro; Inflation Passthrough; Arbitrage Pricing; Strategic Allocation; Tactical Allocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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