IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gai/rpaper/97.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Trunin

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • M. Kamenskih

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

This publication offers a system of macroeconomic indicators which allow monitoring of financial stablity in the developing markets. Methodolgy used in this publication permits quarterly mnitoring of financial stability in the Russian Federation. A system of indicators with a certain degree of security allows revealing negative tendencies and take measures aimed at their elimination.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:97
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/rpaper/97Trunin.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    3. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1868, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1991. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-1372.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yehning Chen, 1999. "Banking Panics: The Role of the First-Come, First-Served Rule and Information Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 946-968, October.
    8. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    9. Mark Kruger & Patrick N. Osakwe & Jennifer Page, 2000. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 257-274, September.
    10. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    11. Ms. Nancy P. Marion & Mr. Robert P Flood, 2001. "A Model of the Joint Distribution of Banking and Exchange-Rate Crises," IMF Working Papers 2001/213, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    13. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    14. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    15. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    17. George A. Akerlof & Paul M. Romer, 1993. "Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 1-74.
    18. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    19. Goldberg, Linda S., 1994. "Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    21. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    22. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
    23. Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-448, May.
    24. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    26. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    27. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    28. Glick, R. & Moreno, R., 1999. "Money and Credit, Competitiveness, and Currency Crises in Asia and Latin America," Papers 99-01, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    29. Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Jahangir Aziz & Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements," IMF Working Papers 2000/067, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Mr. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization?," IMF Working Papers 1995/061, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Fratzscher, M., 1999. "What Causes Currency Crises: Sunspots, Contagion or Fundamentals?," Economics Working Papers eco99/39, European University Institute.
    32. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    33. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    34. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    35. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 2000/055, International Monetary Fund.
    37. J. Caprio & P. Honohan, 2000. "Restoring Banking Stability: Beyond Supervised Capital Requirements," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(1), pages 5-22, March.
    38. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    39. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    40. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    41. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    42. Marc Klau & John Hawkins, 2000. "Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 91, Bank for International Settlements.
    43. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:749-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Caprio Jr., Gerard, 1998. "Banking on crises : expensive lessons from recent financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1979, The World Bank.
    45. Струченевский Антон Александрович, 1998. "Эмпирический Анализ Финансовых Кризисов В России," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 2(2), pages 197-209.
    46. P. Honohan, 2000. "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 83-109, February.
    47. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    48. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    49. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    53. Herrara, Santiago & Garcia, Conrado, 1999. "User's guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in Latin American countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2233, The World Bank.
    54. Guttentag, Jack & Herring, Richard, 1984. "Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1359-1382, December.
    55. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 1999/178, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
    57. Marcel Fratzscher, 1998. "Why are currency crises contagious? A comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 664-691, December.
    58. Magdalena Tomczynska, 2000. "Early Indicators of Currency Crises. Review of some literature," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0208, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    59. Mr. Marco Rossi, 1999. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies: Do Capital Controls, Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1999/066, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    61. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/004, International Monetary Fund.
    62. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1998. "Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility," IMF Working Papers 1998/083, International Monetary Fund.
    63. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
    64. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    65. Mr. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998. "The Nordic Banking Crisis: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/007, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
    67. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marina Yu. Malkina & Anton O. Ovcharov, 2019. "Financial Stress Index as a Generalized Indicator of Financial Instability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 38-54, June.
    2. Taisiia Bondaruk & Nataliia Melnychuk & Igor Bondaruk, 2018. "Instability And Its Government Regulation," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 4(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    2. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    3. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    4. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    6. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    7. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    8. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    10. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    11. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    12. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    14. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    15. Ivo Krznar, 2004. "Currency Crisis: Theory and Practice with Application to Croatia," Working Papers 12, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    16. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets: Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    18. Brunetti, Celso & Scotti, Chiara & Mariano, Roberto S. & Tan, Augustine H.H., 2008. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 104-128, June.
    19. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Stability; Developing Economies;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aleksei Astakhov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gaidaru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.