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What Causes Currency Crises: Sunspots, Contagion or Fundamentals?

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Listed:
  • Fratzscher, M.

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to explain currency crises and exchange rate movements in open emerging markets during the 1990s. A model is developed that allows a systematic comparison and evaluation of three competing explanations for crises: weak economic fundamentals, contagion and sunspots, i.e. exogenous shifts in agents' beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, M., 1999. "What Causes Currency Crises: Sunspots, Contagion or Fundamentals?," Economics Working Papers eco99/39, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco99/39
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    2. Ivo Krznar, 2004. "Currency Crisis: Theory and Practice with Application to Croatia," Working Papers 12, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    3. Masazumi Hattori, 2002. "On Determinants of the Depth of Currency Crisis: Fundamentals, Contagion, and Financial Liberalization," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series International Department,, Bank of Japan.
    4. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    5. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    6. Masazumi Hattori, 2001. "A Survey on Recent Theories and Empirical Analyses Regarding Currency Crises -- The Role of Liquidity Provision as a Policy Measure in Currency Crisis Management --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series International Department,, Bank of Japan.
    7. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    8. Loaiza-Maya, Rubén Albeiro & Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2015. "Exchange rate contagion in Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 355-367.
    9. Adil NAAMANE, 2012. "Peut-on prévenir les crises financières ?," Working Papers 2011-2012_7, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised May 2012.
    10. Adil Naamane, 2012. "Peut-on prévenir les crises financières ?," Working Papers hal-01885154, HAL.
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Non-Linear Relationship?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 5, pages 159-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2015. "Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 535-549, July.
    13. Baur, Dirk G. & Fry, Renée A., 2009. "Multivariate contagion and interdependence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 353-366, September.
    14. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    16. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    17. Jianping Shi & Yu Gao, 2010. "A study on KLR financial crisis early-warning model," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 254-275, June.
    18. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Jianping Shi & Yu Gao, 2010. "A Study on KLR Financial Crisis Early-Warning Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 254-275, June.
    20. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas De Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 410-434, September.
    21. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CURRENCIES ; PROJECTIONS ; MONETARY CRISIS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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