IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/40806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Comparison of the Recent Crises in Turkey in terms of Output Gap

Author

Listed:
  • Goksel, Turkmen
  • Ozturkler, Harun

Abstract

The importance of output gap and its timely measure come from the fact that it can serve as a guide to macroeconomic policy design. The knowledge of the position of an economy in a cycle is invaluable information and it has an important role in formulation of monetary, fiscal, and income policies. In this paper, we measure potential GDP and output gap for the Turkish Economy for the period between 1998Q1 and 2011Q4, using production function approach. We analyze the crises and the boom periods in terms of output gap. We find that according to the length of downturn and recovery periods, the worst crisis is the 2001. However, when we compare the crises according to the magnitude, the biggest collapse occurs during 2008 crisis. After recovering from 2008 crisis, once again the actual real GDP remains higher than the potential GDP for 5 successive quarters. Moreover, in this period actual real GDP is back on its old trend suggesting that the recovery period is over for Turkey and the negative effects of 2008 global crisis are not permanent.

Suggested Citation

  • Goksel, Turkmen & Ozturkler, Harun, 2012. "The Comparison of the Recent Crises in Turkey in terms of Output Gap," MPRA Paper 40806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40806/1/MPRA_paper_40806.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    2. S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 31-60.
    3. Jacques R. Artus, 1977. "Measures of Potential Output in Manufacturing for Eight Industrial Countries, 1955-78 (Estimation du potentiel de production relative au secteur manufacturier de huit pays industriels, 1955-78) (Medic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 1-35, March.
    4. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malik, M. Fahad & Awan, Dr Masood Sarwar & Malik, Dr Waseem Shahid, 2020. "Macroeconomic Shocks: Short-Run versus Long-Run Perspectives," MPRA Paper 99103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Faith Christian Cacnio, 2013. "Analysing inflation dynamics in the Philippines using the new Keynesian Phililips curve," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 50(2), pages 53-82, December.
    3. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    4. Raphael Bergoeing & Norman V. Loayza & Facundo Piguillem, 2016. "The Whole is Greater than the Sum of Its Parts: Complementary Reforms to Address Microeconomic Distortions," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 268-305.
    5. Arcalean, Calin & Glomm, Gerhard & Schiopu, Ioana, 2012. "Growth effects of spatial redistribution policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 988-1008.
    6. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Peri, Giovanni, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    8. Michael A. Clemens, 2017. "The Meaning Of Failed Replications: A Review And Proposal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 326-342, February.
    9. Paul, Saumik, 2019. "A Decline in Labor's Share with Capital Accumulation and Complementary Factor Inputs: An Application of the Morishima Elasticity of Substitution," IZA Discussion Papers 12219, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Frédéric Gannon & Stéphane Hamayon & Florence Legros & Vincent Touzé, 2014. "Sustainability of the French first pillar pension scheme (CNAV): assessing automatic balance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460192, HAL.
    11. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew Oswald, 1995. "International Wage Curves," NBER Chapters, in: Differences and Changes in Wage Structures, pages 145-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    13. Kamel Helali & Thouraya Boujelbene Dammak, 2019. "Examining the Role of Structural Change in a Phillips Curve: Bivariate GARCH DCC Analysis," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 385-393, September.
    14. Tomasz Grodzicki & Mateusz Jankiewicz, 2020. "Forecasting the Level of Unemployment, Inflation and Wages: The Case of Sweden," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 400-409.
    15. Kyoji Fukao & Cristiano Perugini, 2021. "The Long‐Run Dynamics of the Labor Share in Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 445-480, June.
    16. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 2013. "The Influence Of Irving Fisher On Milton Friedman’S Monetary Economics," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 153-177, June.
    17. Chaoran Chen, 2017. "Untitled Land, Occupational Choice, and Agricultural Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 91-121, October.
    18. Mike Waugh & David Lagakos & Doug Gollin, 2011. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap in Developing Countries," 2011 Meeting Papers 1397, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Christian Johnson & George G Kaufman, 2007. "Un banco, con cualquier otro nombre…," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 185-199, Octubre-d.
    20. Qian, Nancy & Lagakos, David & Moll, Benjamin & Porzio, Tommaso, 2012. "Experience Matters: Human Capital and Development Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crises; Output gap; Potential GDP; Production function approach; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.