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Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts

Author

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  • Marimo, Pricilla
  • Kaplan, Todd R
  • Mylne, Ken
  • Sharpe, Martin

Abstract

Experimental economics methods were used to assess public understanding of information in weather forecasts and test whether the participants were able to make better decisions using the probabilistic information presented in table or bar graph formats than if they are presented with a deterministic forecast. We asked undergraduate students from the University of Exeter to choose the most probable temperature outcome between a set of “lotteries” based on the temperature up to five days ahead. If they choose a true statement, participants were rewarded with a cash reward. Results indicate that on average participants provided with uncertainty information make better decisions than those without. Statistical analysis indicates a possible learning effect as the experiment progressed. Furthermore, participants who were shown the graph with uncertainty information took on average less response time compared to those who were shown a table with uncertainty information.

Suggested Citation

  • Marimo, Pricilla & Kaplan, Todd R & Mylne, Ken & Sharpe, Martin, 2012. "Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts," MPRA Paper 38287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38287
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:wrk:wrkemf:30 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell & Johnny Runge, 2019. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-20, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    experimental economics; uncertainty; decision making; bar graph; table;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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