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Income shocks and social unrest: theory and evidence

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  • Almer, Christian
  • Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy
  • oechslin, Manuel

Abstract

Combining theoretical and empirical work, this paper explores the impact of economic shocks on the incidence of social unrest (i.e., mass demonstrations and violent riots) in autocracies. Our theory predicts negative economic shocks to boost unrest since-in bad times-fighting the regime to reduce the level of resource diversion becomes cheaper. Using a new dataset on political instability in Africa, our empirical analysis confirms this prediction. The instrumental variables estimates-which take into account the potential endogeneity of economic shocks-suggest a significant increase in the level of social unrest as a response to a decline in real per capita GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & oechslin, Manuel, 2011. "Income shocks and social unrest: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 34426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34426
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    Cited by:

    1. Yousef, Sahar, 2020. "Can Trade Liberalization in Agricultural Products Mitigate the Effect of Climate Change on Civil Strife?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304609, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; social unrest; economic shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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