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The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles

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  • Harding, Don

Abstract

The ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of business cycles and to agree on the rules for identifying and dating these key features. Although not strictly necessary for this paper, it is also helpful to discuss why we seek to identify and date key features of the business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Harding, Don, 1997. "The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles," MPRA Paper 3357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3357
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1931. "The Smoothing of Time Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca31-1.
    2. Garey Ramey & Joel Watson, 1997. "Contractual Fragility, Job Destruction, and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 873-911.
    3. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    4. Amartya Sen, 1997. "Maximization and the Act of Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 745-780, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    2. Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 200607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    3. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Christopher Bajada, 2005. "Unemployment and the underground economy in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 177-189.
    5. Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Output Growth, Capital Flow Reversals and Sudden stop Crises," Departmental Working Papers 200606, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    6. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; recession; business cycle dating; probability of recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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