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Breaks, bubbles, booms, and busts: the evolution of primary commodity price fundamentals

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  • Enders, Walter
  • Holt, Matthew T.

Abstract

This paper explores the behavior of real commodity prices over a 50–year period. Attention is given to how the fundamentals for various commodity prices have changed with a special emphasis on behavior since the mid 2000s. To identify changing commodity price fundamentals we estimate shifting–mean autoregressions by using: the Bai and Perron (1998) procedure for estimating structural breaks; a SlowShift procedure that specifies intercepts to be nonlinear, potentially smooth functions of time; and low frequency Fourier functions. We find that the pattern in the timing of the various shifts is suggestive of the causal fundamentals underlying the recent boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Enders, Walter & Holt, Matthew T., 2011. "Breaks, bubbles, booms, and busts: the evolution of primary commodity price fundamentals," MPRA Paper 31461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31461
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    2. Ozgur, Onder & Yilanci, Veli & Ozbugday, Fatih Cemil, 2021. "Detecting speculative bubbles in metal prices: Evidence from GSADF test and machine learning approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Ubilava, David, 2014. "The ENSO Effect on World Wheat Market Dynamics: Smooth Transitions in Asymmetric Price Transmission," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170223, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Prices; Fundamentals; Nonlinear Trends; Shifting--Mean Autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

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