IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/53439.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Return and Volatility Spillovers in the Moroccan Stock Market During The Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • El Ghini, Ahmed
  • Saidi, Youssef

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the return and volatility linkages among Moroccan stock market with that of U.S. and three European countries (France, Germany and U.K.) before and during the financial crisis. More specifically, we use stock returns in MASI, CAC, DAX, FTSE and NASDAQ as representatives of Moroccan, French, German, British and U.S. markets respectively. The data sample frequency is daily and spans from January 2002 to December 2012 excluding holidays. Using the estimation results of bivariate VAR-BEKK GARCH model, we analyze the return and volatility spillover effects between the Moroccan market and the other considered markets. Moreover, the identification of break point due to the subprime crisis is made by Lee-Strazicich (2003,2004) and Bai-Perron (1998, 2003) structural break tests. The empirical findings provide clear evidence of stronger linkages between the Moroccan market and the four other considered stock markets have been created during the subprime financial crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • El Ghini, Ahmed & Saidi, Youssef, 2014. "Return and Volatility Spillovers in the Moroccan Stock Market During The Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 53439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53439
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53439/1/MPRA_paper_53439.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72028/1/MPRA_paper_53439.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francq, Christian & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2014. "Estimating multivariate GARCH and stochastic correlation models equation by equation," MPRA Paper 54250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2006. "Volatility transmission and financial crises," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 376-390, September.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    5. Francq, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2009. "Testing the Nullity of GARCH Coefficients: Correction of the Standard Tests and Relative Efficiency Comparisons," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 313-324.
    6. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    7. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    8. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
    9. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    10. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
    11. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    12. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    13. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    14. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Ahmed El Ghini & Youssef Saidi, 2015. "Financial market contagion during the global financial crisis: evidence from the Moroccan stock market," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 78-95.
    17. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    18. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    19. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2006. "Additional Evidence of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Restricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1329-1349, August.
    20. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    21. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    22. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    23. Engle, Robert F. (ed.), 1995. "ARCH: Selected Readings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774327.
    24. Prodan, Ruxandra, 2008. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 50-65, January.
    25. Didier, Tatiana & Mauro, Paolo & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2008. "Vanishing financial contagion?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 775-791.
    26. Isabel Maria Pereira Viegas Vieira, 2008. "Contagion effects of the US Subprime Crisis on Developed Countries," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2008_08, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    27. Neaime, Simon, 2012. "The global financial crisis, financial linkages and correlations in returns and volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 268-282.
    28. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    29. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, April.
    30. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    31. Neumark, David & Tinsley, P A & Tosini, Suzanne, 1991. "After-Hours Stock Prices and Post-Crash Hangovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 159-178, March.
    32. Sugimoto, Kimiko & Matsuki, Takashi & Yoshida, Yushi, 2014. "The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 201-233.
    33. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    34. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhong, Yi & Liu, Jiapeng, 2021. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between China and Southeast Asian stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 57-69.
    2. Rahim, Adam Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Effects of Political Turmoil (Arab Spring) on Portfolio Diversification Benefits: Perspectives of the Moroccan Islamic Stock investors," MPRA Paper 58832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yousaf, Imran & Arfaoui, Nadia & Gubareva, Mariya, 2024. "Spillovers and hedging effectiveness between oil and US equity sectors: Evidence from the COVID pre- and post-vaccination phases," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Del Lo, Gaye & Yuni, Denis, 2023. "Global commodity and equity markets spillovers to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Yao, Yuan & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yan, 2022. "A volatility model based on adaptive expectations: An improvement on the rational expectations model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Eric Martial Etoundi Atenga & Mbodja Mougoué, 2021. "Return and volatility spillovers to African equity markets and their determinants," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 883-918, August.
    7. Ahmed El Ghini & Youssef Saidi, 2015. "Financial market contagion during the global financial crisis: evidence from the Moroccan stock market," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 78-95.
    8. Kai Shi, 2021. "Spillovers of Stock Markets among the BRICS: New Evidence in Time and Frequency Domains before the Outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-37, March.
    9. Dimitrios Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas (Gillas) & Costas Syriopoulos & Argyro Svingou, 2017. "Asymmetric and nonlinear inter-relations of US stock indices," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(1), pages 78-129, December.
    10. Belcaid, Karim & El Ghini, Ahmed, 2019. "U.S., European, Chinese economic policy uncertainty and Moroccan stock market volatility," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Sasongko, Aryo, 2021. "US government shutdowns and Indonesian stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aymen Ben Rejeb & Adel Boughrara, 2015. "Financial integration in emerging market economies: Effects on volatility transmission and contagion," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(3), pages 161-179, September.
    2. Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    4. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    5. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    6. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    8. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    9. Balli, Faruk & Hajhoj, Hassan Rafdan & Basher, Syed Abul & Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem, 2015. "An analysis of returns and volatility spillovers and their determinants in emerging Asian and Middle Eastern countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 311-325.
    10. Hwang, Eugene & Min, Hong-Ghi & Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2013. "Determinants of stock market comovements among US and emerging economies during the US financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 338-348.
    11. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice O. & Jean Louis, Rosmy & Vo, Tuan Kiet, 2015. "The transmission of market shocks and bilateral linkages: Evidence from emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 349-357.
    13. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    15. Sewraj, Deeya & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2018. "Identifying contagion: A unifying approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-240.
    16. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.
    17. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    18. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    19. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2006. "Portfolio implications of systemic crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2347-2369, August.
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Causal effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim stock markets: nonparametric quantile causality approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(53), pages 5712-5727, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return and volatility spillovers; multivariate GARCH model; financial crisis; stock markets; break identification; conditional correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.