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Un modelo de tres factores con un parámetro de sensibilidad de mercado para estimar la dinámica de la tasa corta: Una aplicación para la tasa de fondeo gubernamental de México
[A three-factor model with a market sensitivity parameter to estimate the dynamics of the short rate: An application for the Mexican government funding rate]

Author

Listed:
  • Ruiz-Porras, Antonio
  • Perez-Sicairos, Rene Benjamin

Abstract

In this study we develop a three-factor model of the term structure of interest rates that includes a market sensitivity parameter. In the model the future short-rate depends on the current short-rate, the short-term mean of the short rate and the current volatility of the short-rate. The parameter measures the impact of the volatility on the short rate. The model is used to estimate the dynamics of the Mexican short rate. The methodology to estimate the term structure uses three-stage least squares (3SLS) and full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimations and Monte Carlo simulations. The results suggest that the model fits better than the CIR one to describe and predict the Mexican government funding rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiz-Porras, Antonio & Perez-Sicairos, Rene Benjamin, 2010. "Un modelo de tres factores con un parámetro de sensibilidad de mercado para estimar la dinámica de la tasa corta: Una aplicación para la tasa de fondeo gubernamental de México [A three-factor model," MPRA Paper 26631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26631
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26631/1/MPRA_paper_26631.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diether Beuermann & Antonios Antoniou & Alejandro Bernales, 2005. "The Dynamics of the Short-Term Interest Rate in the UK," Finance 0512029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    4. Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
    5. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    6. Dhrymes, Phoebus J, 1973. "Small Sample and Asymptotic Relations Between Maximum Likelihood and Three Stage Least Squares Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(2), pages 357-364, March.
    7. Lin Chen, "undated". "Interest Rate Dynamics and Derivatives Pricing," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 129, Society for Computational Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure; short rate; market sensitivity; government funding rate; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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