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A cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates

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  • Moreno, Manuel
  • Platania, Federico

Abstract

This paper presents a cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates assuming that the spot rate converges to a certain time-dependent long-term level. This model incorporates the fact that the interest rate volatility depends on the interest rate level and specifies the mean reversion level and the interest rate volatility using harmonic oscillators. In this way, we incorporate a good deal of flexibility and provide a high analytical tractability. Under these assumptions, we compute closed-form expressions for the values of different fixed income and interest rate derivatives. Finally, we analyze the empirical performance of the cyclical model versus that proposed in Cox et al. (1985) and show that it outperforms this benchmark, providing a better fitting to market data.

Suggested Citation

  • Moreno, Manuel & Platania, Federico, 2015. "A cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 109-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:241:y:2015:i:1:p:109-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.08.010
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    3. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2019. "Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1011-1023.
    4. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2018. "A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 140-150.
    5. Hainaut, Donatien, 2021. "Lévy interest rate models with a long memory," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2021020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    6. Cousin, Areski & Maatouk, Hassan & Rullière, Didier, 2016. "Kriging of financial term-structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 631-648.
    7. Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
    8. Giuseppe Orlando & Michele Bufalo, 2021. "Interest rates forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#—How to make a single‐factor model work," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1566-1580, December.
    9. Tarik Bazgour & Federico Platania, 2022. "A defaultable bond model with cyclical fluctuations in the spread process," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(2), pages 647-672, May.
    10. Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2020. "Forecasting interest rates through Vasicek and CIR models: A partitioning approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 569-579, July.
    11. Recchioni, M.C. & Sun, Y., 2016. "An explicitly solvable Heston model with stochastic interest rate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 359-377.
    12. Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2018. "On The Calibration of Short-Term Interest Rates Through a CIR Model," Papers 1806.03683, arXiv.org.
    13. Fanelli, Viviana, 2017. "Implications of implicit credit spread volatilities on interest rate modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 707-718.
    14. Bueno-Guerrero, Alberto & Moreno, Manuel & Navas, Javier F., 2020. "Valuation of caps and swaptions under a stochastic string model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).

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