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Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules

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  • Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.

Abstract

The paper examines the effect of trend productivity growth on the determinacy and learnability of equilibria under alternative monetary policy rules. Under zero trend inflation we show that the economic structure is isomorphic to that of Bullard and Mitra (2002) and show that under a policy rule that responds to current period inflation and output a higher trend growth rate relaxes the conditions for determinacy and learnability. Results are mixed for other policy rules. Under the expectations-based rule, trend growth tightens the conditions for determinacy but it relaxes the conditions for learnability. Under the lagged-data-based rule, trend growth tightens the conditions for determinacy and learnability. Our analysis shows that lower (higher) trend growth has similar effects as higher (lower) trend inflation in the sense of making inflation more (less) forward-looking. Thus, our results complement previous studies on the role of high trend inflation as a cause of macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. in the 1970s, as this period was also characterized by productivity growth slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:241-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.02.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2012. "Productivity slowdown and monetary policy," Kiel Policy Brief 57, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2017. "A Note On Trend Growth And Learning About Monetary Policy Rules In A Two-Block World Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 243-258, January.
    3. Hasui Kohei, 2021. "Trend Growth and Robust Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 449-472, June.
    4. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules in a two-block world economy," Kiel Working Papers 1818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend growth; Learning; Monetary policy; Determinacy; Expectational stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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