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Transition of Social Welfare in the European Country Clubs

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  • Mamatzakis, E
  • Christodoulakis, G

Abstract

This paper focuses on the dynamics of welfare by studying the persistence and transition of poverty risk, social transfers, employment and unemployment in the four European Country Clubs as defined by Esping-Andersen, G. (1990) and Bertola et al. (2001). We model their evolution in a multistate Markov process for proportions of aggregate data and estimate the transition matrix by adopting a Bayesian approach under inequality constraints and Monte Carlo Integration. Our approach uncovers the entire empirical posterior distribution of persistence and transition probabilities, for which statistical inference is readily available. The results show high persistence in unemployment rate in the Anglo-Saxon social club, whilst regarding social expenditures the four identified social clubs converge to two, the Nordic with the Continental club and the Anglo-Saxon with the Southern club. The half life statistics show fast pace across all variables of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Mamatzakis, E & Christodoulakis, G, 2009. "Transition of Social Welfare in the European Country Clubs," MPRA Paper 22490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22490
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Dijk, H. K. & Kloek, T., 1980. "Further experience in Bayesian analysis using Monte Carlo integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 307-328, December.
    2. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Clubs; Markov Chains; Monte Carlo Integration; Transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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