IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/2159.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets

Author

Listed:
  • McCauley, Joseph l.

Abstract

Interest in thermodynamic analogies in economics is older than the idea of von Neumann to look for market entropy in liquidity, advice that was not taken in any thermodynamic analogy presented so far in the literature. In this paper we go further and use a standard strategy from trading theory to pinpoint why thermodynamic analogies necessarily fail to describe financial markets, in spite of the presence of liquidity as the underlying basis for market entropy. Market liquidity of frequently traded assets does play the role of the ‘heat bath‘, as anticipated by von Neumann, but we are able to identify the no-arbitrage condition geometrically as an assumption of translational and rotational invariance rather than (as finance theorists would claim) an equilibrium condition. We then use the empirical market distribution to introduce an asset’s entropy and discuss the underlying reason why real financial markets cannot behave thermodynamically: financial markets are unstable, they do not approach statistical equilibrium, nor are there any available topological invariants on which to base a purely formal statistical mechanics. After discussing financial markets, we finally generalize our result by proposing that the idea of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand is a falsifiable proposition: we suggest how to test nonfinancial markets empirically for the stabilizing action of The Invisible Hand.

Suggested Citation

  • McCauley, Joseph l., 2004. "Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets," MPRA Paper 2159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2159/1/MPRA_paper_2159.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J.L. McCauley & G.h. Gunaratne, 2002. "An empirical model of volatility of returns and option pricing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 186, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Baxter,Martin & Rennie,Andrew, 1996. "Financial Calculus," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521552899, January.
    3. Per Bak & Simon F. Norrelykke & Martin Shubik, 1998. "The Dynamics of Money," Papers cond-mat/9811094, arXiv.org, revised May 1999.
    4. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    5. Mirowski,Philip, 2002. "Machine Dreams," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521772839, January.
    6. Mirowski,Philip, 2002. "Machine Dreams," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521775267, January.
    7. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2000. "Economics and the new economy: the invisible hand meets creative destruction," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 15-30.
    8. McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2003. "An empirical model of volatility of returns and option pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 178-198.
    9. Gemunu H. Gunaratne & Joseph L. McCauley, 2002. "A theory for Fluctuations in Stock Prices and Valuation of their Options," Papers cond-mat/0209475, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zapart, Christopher A., 2015. "Econophysics: A challenge to econometricians," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 318-327.
    2. Pichl, Lukáš & Kaizoji, Taisei & Yamano, Takuya, 2007. "Stylized facts in internal rates of return on stock index and its derivative transactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 219-227.
    3. Bucsa, G. & Jovanovic, F. & Schinckus, C., 2011. "A unified model for price return distributions used in econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3435-3443.
    4. Wayne, James J., 2013. "Fundamental Equation of Economics," MPRA Paper 50695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Grilli, Luca & Santoro, Domenico, 2020. "Boltzmann Entropy in Cryptocurrencies: A Statistical Ensemble Based Approach," MPRA Paper 99591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Josip Stepanic, 2004. "Social Equivalent of Free Energy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 2(1), pages 53-60.
    7. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    8. Schinckus, Christophe, 2008. "The financial simulacrum: The consequences of the symbolization and the computerization of the financial market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1076-1089, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCauley, Joseph L., 2003. "Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 199-212.
    2. McCauley, Joseph L., 2004. "Making dynamic modelling effective in economics," MPRA Paper 2130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. McCauley, Joseph L., 2004. "What Economists can learn from physics and finance," MPRA Paper 2240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Joesph L. McCauley, 2002. "Self-Financing, Replicating Hedging Strategies, an incomplete thermodynamic analogy," Papers cond-mat/0203304, arXiv.org.
    5. McCauley, Joseph L., 2003. "Scaling, correlations, and cascades in finance and turbulence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 213-221.
    6. Claus Dierksmeier, 2011. "The Freedom–Responsibility Nexus in Management Philosophy and Business Ethics," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 101(2), pages 263-283, June.
    7. Sandra Silva & Aurora Teixeira, 2009. "On the divergence of evolutionary research paths in the past 50 years: a comprehensive bibliometric account," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 605-642, October.
    8. H. Spencer Banzhaf & James Boyd, 2012. "The Architecture and Measurement of an Ecosystem Services Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-32, March.
    9. Ivan Boldyrev & Olessia Kirtchik, 2014. "General Equilibrium Theory behind the Iron Curtain: The Case of Victor Polterovich," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 435-461, Fall.
    10. Seemann, Lars & Hua, Jia-Chen & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2012. "Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 6024-6032.
    11. H. Spencer Banzhaf, 2014. "Retrospectives: The Cold-War Origins of the Value of Statistical Life," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 213-226, Fall.
    12. Jérôme Lallement & Amanar Akhabbar, 2011. "Appliquer la théorie économique de l'équilibre général : de Walras à Leontief," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00609684, HAL.
    13. Shyam Sunder, 2006. "Determinants of Economic Interaction: Behavior or Structure," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 1(1), pages 21-32, May.
    14. Gaffeo, E. & Catalano, M. & Clementi, F. & Delli Gatti, D. & Gallegati, M. & Russo, A., 2007. "Reflections on modern macroeconomics: Can we travel along a safer road?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 89-97.
    15. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    16. Jinkyu Kim & Gunn Kim & Sungbae An & Young-Kyun Kwon & Sungroh Yoon, 2013. "Entropy-Based Analysis and Bioinformatics-Inspired Integration of Global Economic Information Transfer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, January.
    17. Hardy Hanappi, 2008. "The concept of choice: why and how innovative behaviour is not just stochastic," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-289, April.
    18. Bucsa, G. & Jovanovic, F. & Schinckus, C., 2011. "A unified model for price return distributions used in econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3435-3443.
    19. J.L. McCauley & G.h. Gunaratne, 2002. "An empirical model of volatility of returns and option pricing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 186, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. David Colander & Richard Holt & Barkley Rosser, 2004. "The changing face of mainstream economics," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 485-499.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics; utility; entropy and disorder; thermodynamics; financial markets; stochastic processes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • A2 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.