IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/21012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The empirical relevance of Goodwin’s business cycle model for the US economy

Author

Listed:
  • Tarassow, Artur

Abstract

The paper attempts to verify Richard Goodwin's (1967) endogenous business cycle theory which states that the driving forces behind fluctuations are class struggles between capitalists and workers about income distribution. Based on a Marxian profit-led model, non-linear differential equations lead to endogenous cycles in the wage-share-employment-space which can be observed empirically. Applying a bivariate vector autoregressive model we analyze the relationship between real unit labor costs and the employment rate for the US economy over a period from 1948:1 to 2006:4. Granger-causality tests, orthogonalized impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition are conducted for the raw data as well as the cyclical components of the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filter methods. We verify the profit-led character of the US goods market and find that income distribution is driven by labor market dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarassow, Artur, 2010. "The empirical relevance of Goodwin’s business cycle model for the US economy," MPRA Paper 21012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21012/1/MPRA_paper_21012.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21815/1/MPRA_paper_21815.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22271/1/MPRA_paper_22271.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    2. Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 24(3), pages 349-376, May.
    3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 139-173, June.
    6. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    7. Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 506-522, December.
    8. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Mariolis, Theodore, 2018. "A non-linear post-Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle for the USA," MPRA Paper 90036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bailly, Hugo & Mortier, Frédéric & Giraud, Gaël, 2024. "Empirical analysis of a debt-augmented Goodwin model for the United States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 619-633.
    3. Xiao Jiang, 2015. "Endogenous Cycles and Chaos in a Capitalist Economy: A Circuit of Capital Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 123-157, February.
    4. Nikolaos Rodousakis, 2016. "Testing Goodwin’s Growth Cycle Disaggregated Models: Evidence from the Input-Output Tables of the Greek Economy for the years 1988-1997," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 10(2), pages 99-118, December.
    5. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Asada, Yasukuni, 2020. "Quantifying Goodwin Growth Cycles with Minimum Wage Shares," MPRA Paper 99926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kerim Eser Afc{s}ar & Mehmet Ozyi~git & Yusuf Yuksel & Umit Ak{i}nc{i}, 2021. "Testing the Goodwin Growth Cycles with Econophysics Approach in 2002-2019 Period in Turkey," Papers 2106.02546, arXiv.org.
    7. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2017. "Rising wage dispersion between white-collar and blue-collar workers and market concentration: The case of the USA, 1966-2011," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 62, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    8. Julio López Gallardo & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2014. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy [Demande Effective dans l'évolution récente de l'économie des Etats-Unis]," Post-Print halshs-01907268, HAL.
    9. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Asada, Yasukuni & Sonoda, Ryunosuke, 2024. "Effects of Minimum Wage Share and Wage Gap Reduction on Cyclical Fluctuation: A Goodwin Approach," MPRA Paper 121695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hugo Bailly & Frédéric Mortier & Gaël Giraud, 2023. "Empirical analysis of a debt-augmented Goodwin model for the United States," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04139954, HAL.
    11. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2019. "Consumption dispersion between white-collar and blue-collar workers and rising market concentration in the USA: 1984-2011," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 72, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    12. Hugo Bailly & Frédéric Mortier & Gaël Giraud, 2023. "Empirical analysis of a debt-augmented Goodwin model for the United States," Working Papers hal-04139954, HAL.
    13. Matheus R. Grasselli & Aditya Maheshwari, 2018. "Testing a Goodwin model with general capital accumulation rate," Papers 1803.01536, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Moreira, Helmar Nunes, 2019. "Some new insights on the empirics of Goodwin's growth-cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 42-54.
    2. Eckhard Hein & Artur Tarassow, 2010. "Distribution, aggregate demand and productivity growth: theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a post-Kaleckian model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(4), pages 727-754.
    3. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    4. Seymen, Atılım, 2013. "Sequential identification of technological news shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-111, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Nikolaos Rodousakis, 2016. "Testing Goodwin’s Growth Cycle Disaggregated Models: Evidence from the Input-Output Tables of the Greek Economy for the years 1988-1997," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 10(2), pages 99-118, December.
    6. Haichao Fan & Zhiwei Xu, 2014. "Firm dynamics in news-driven business cycles: the role of endogenous survival rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(15), pages 1767-1777, May.
    7. Robert Jump & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2017. "Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-584, September.
    8. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2012. "On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 256-258.
    9. Di Bella, Gabriel & Grigoli, Francesco, 2019. "Optimism, pessimism, and short-term fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    10. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    11. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    12. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    13. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 210-243, October.
    15. Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Zanetti, Francesco, 2014. "News and labour market dynamics in the data and in matching models," Bank of England working papers 488, Bank of England.
    16. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    17. Baek, Jungho & Cho, Yongsung & Koo, Won W., 2009. "The environmental consequences of globalization: A country-specific time-series analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(8-9), pages 2255-2264, June.
    18. Kerim Eser Afc{s}ar & Mehmet Ozyi~git & Yusuf Yuksel & Umit Ak{i}nc{i}, 2021. "Testing the Goodwin Growth Cycles with Econophysics Approach in 2002-2019 Period in Turkey," Papers 2106.02546, arXiv.org.
    19. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Labor Supply Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Co-movement," NBER Working Papers 15561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul & Nikiforos, Michalis, 2024. "Estimating a Time-Varying Distribution-Led Regime," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 163-176.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Goodwin; Econometrics; Marxian Economics; Post Keynesian Economics; Functional income distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.