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Present value relations, Granger non-causality and VAR stability

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  • Fanelli, Luca

Abstract

When in "exact" present value (PV) relations the decision variables do not Granger cause the explanatory variables and a VAR process is used to derive restrictions, the system embodies explosive roots. Hence any test of the PV restrictions would reject the null if the system incorporates Granger non-causality constraints. This paper investigates the issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanelli, Luca, 2006. "Present value relations, Granger non-causality and VAR stability," MPRA Paper 1642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1642
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, August.
    2. Luca Fanelli, 2006. "Dynamic adjustment cost models with forward-looking behaviour," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 23-47, March.
    3. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    4. Meese, Richard, 1980. "Dynamic factor demand schedules for labor and capital under rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 141-158, September.
    5. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Linear Quadratic Adjustment Cost Model and the Demand for Labour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 145-159, Suppl. De.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January.
    9. Timmermann, Allan, 1994. "Present value models with feedback : Solutions, stability, bubbles, and some empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1093-1119, November.
    10. Fanelli, Luca, 2002. "A new approach for estimating and testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations and I(1) variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 117-139, January.
    11. Johansen, Soren & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 1999. "Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 73-91, November.
    12. Fanelli, Luca, 2006. "Multi-equational linear quadratic adjustment cost models with rational expectations and cointegration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 445-456, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2013. "Inconsistent Var Regression With Common Explosive Roots," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 808-837, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger non causality; Present value model; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General

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