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Russian Election Reform and the Effect of Social Conformity on Voting and the Party System: 2007 and 2008

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  • Coleman, Stephen

Abstract

In 2007 Russian voters elected representatives to the State Duma under new electoral procedures that President V. Putin had instituted. A presidential election followed in 2008 leading to Putin’s new role as Prime Minister. To many observers, the reforms and the election campaigns resulted in a party system manipulated to the advantage of the government, although Putin’s reported goal was to reduce the number of political parties. Earlier research [1,2,6] reported that social conformity exerted a strong, persistent, and predictable influence on voting in national elections from 1991 to 2003. This analysis examines how the effect of social conformity on Russian voters might have changed from earlier elections as a result of the electoral reforms and campaign practices. Specific questions addressed are how well the political party system now aligns with the interests of voters, and whether this type of analysis can speak to fairness of the elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Coleman, Stephen, 2009. "Russian Election Reform and the Effect of Social Conformity on Voting and the Party System: 2007 and 2008," MPRA Paper 13087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    2. Knack, Stephen & Kropf, Martha, 1998. "For shame! The effect of community cooperative context on the probability of voting," MPRA Paper 27258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Бородин А. Д., 2005. "Согласованность Коллективных Действий В Поведении Российских Избирателей," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 9(1).
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    10. Norman Schofield & Alexei Zakharov, 2010. "A stochastic model of the 2007 Russian Duma election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 177-194, January.
    11. Richter, Kaspar, 2006. "Wage Arrears and Economic Voting in Russia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 100(1), pages 133-145, February.
    12. Coleman, Stephen, 2005. "Testing Theories with Qualitative and Quantitative Predictions," MPRA Paper 105171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jack Citrin & Eric Schickler & John Sides, 2003. "What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 75-90, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Coleman, Stephen, 2014. "Evolution of the Russian Political Party System under the Influence of Social Conformity: 1993-2011," MPRA Paper 59038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Coleman, Stephen, 2018. "Voting and conformity: Russia, 1993–2016," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 87-95.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; voting; elections; mathematical model; social norms; social conformity; political party system; entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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