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Hotelling Rules: Oscillatory Versus Quadratic Trends in Natural Resource Prices

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  • Antypas, Antonios
  • Koundouri, Phoebe
  • Kourogenis, Nikolaos

Abstract

A model is introduced for the description of natural resources price paths, which, in contrast to the existing literature, captures non-linear trends by means of a simple trigonometric function. This model is then compared by means of a set of model selection criteria with a quadratic trend model and with a more general one that nests both models. All models are estimated on the price series of eleven major natural resources. In most cases, the trigonometric trend model is selected as the one better fitting the data, providing evidence against the long-run increase of the corresponding natural resource real prices, with interesting policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Antypas, Antonios & Koundouri, Phoebe & Kourogenis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Hotelling Rules: Oscillatory Versus Quadratic Trends in Natural Resource Prices," MPRA Paper 122327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Phoebe Koundouri & Dimitrios Reppas & Ioannis Souliotis, 2015. "A retrospective on The Allocation of Energy Resource by William D. Nordhaus," DEOS Working Papers 1520, Athens University of Economics and Business.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oscillatory trend; quadratic trend; Hotelling rule; natural resource prices; model selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • Y1 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Data: Tables and Charts

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