IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11850.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning from multiple analogies: an Information Theoretic framework for predicting criminal recidivism

Author

Listed:
  • Bhati, Avinash

Abstract

If recidivism is defined as rearrest within a finite period following release from prison, then the kinds of outcomes typically available to researchers include: (i) whether or not the individual was rearrested within the follow-up period; (ii) how many times the individual was rearrested; and (iii) what was the duration from release to first (or subsequent) rearrest. Since these outcomes are all different manifestations of the same underlying stochastic process, they provide multiple analogies from which to recover information about it. This paper develops a semi-parametric approach for utilizing information in these, and several other related outcomes, to predict criminal recidivism and presents preliminary findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhati, Avinash, 2007. "Learning from multiple analogies: an Information Theoretic framework for predicting criminal recidivism," MPRA Paper 11850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11850
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11850/1/MPRA_paper_11850.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryu, Hang K., 1993. "Maximum entropy estimation of density and regression functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 397-440, April.
    2. Zellner, A., 1988. "Optimal Information-Processing And Bayes' Theorem," Papers m8803, Southern California - Department of Economics.
    3. Alt, James E. & King, Gary & Signorino, Curtis S., 2001. "Aggregation Among Binary, Count, and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 21-44, January.
    4. Winkelmann, Rainer, 1995. "Duration Dependence and Dispersion in Count-Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 467-474, October.
    5. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zellner, Arnold, 1996. "Models, prior information, and Bayesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 51-68, November.
    2. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Simons, T., 2005. "Public-to-Private Transactions : LBOs, MBOs, MBIs and IBOs," Other publications TiSEM 3b76799c-591c-4d22-b126-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Nachum Sicherman, 1996. "Gender Differences in Departures from a Large Firm," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 49(3), pages 484-505, April.
    4. Tue Gørgens & Dean Robert Hyslop, 2018. "The Specification of Dynamic Discrete-Time Two-State Panel Data Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Mark C. Berger & Dan A. Black, 1998. "The Duration Of Medicaid Spells: An Analysis Using Flow And Stock Samples," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 667-675, November.
    6. Arndt, Channing & Simler, Kenneth R., 2005. "Estimating utility-consistent poverty lines," FCND briefs 189, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Baele, Lieven & Farooq, Moazzam & Ongena, Steven, 2014. "Of religion and redemption: Evidence from default on Islamic loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 141-159.
    8. Vygodina, Anna V. & Zorn, Thomas S. & DeFusco, Richard, 2008. "Asymmetry in the effects of economic fundamentals on rising and falling exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 728-746, September.
    9. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1997. "Modèles de comptage semi-paramétriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 525-550, mars-juin.
    10. Ando, Amy, 1998. "Delay on the Path to the Endangered Species List: Do Costs and Benefits Matter," RFF Working Paper Series dp-97-43-rev, Resources for the Future.
    11. Arnaud Dupray & Isabelle Recotillet, 2009. "Mobilités professionnelles et cycle de vie," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 423(1), pages 31-58.
    12. Kanchanaroek, Yingluk & Termansen, Mette & Quinn, Claire, 2013. "Property rights regimes in complex fishery management systems: A choice experiment application," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 363-373.
    13. Eugenio J. Miravete, 2004. "The Doubtful Profitability of Foggy Pricing," Working Papers 04-07, NET Institute.
    14. Edward C. Norton, 1992. "Incentive Regulation of Nursing Homes: Specification Tests of the Markov Model," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 275-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Klein, Michael W, 1996. "Timing Is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 84-101, February.
    16. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Rainer Winkelmann & Klaus Zimmermann, 1998. "Is job stability declining in Germany? Evidence from count data models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1413-1420.
    18. Lammers, Marloes & Bloemen, Hans & Hochguertel, Stefan, 2013. "Job search requirements for older unemployed: Transitions to employment, early retirement and disability benefits," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 31-57.
    19. Galiani, Sebastian & Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 2003. "Duration and risk of unemployment in Argentina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 199-212, June.
    20. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2005. "Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 64-80, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    information theory; criminal recidivism; predictive modeling; multiple analogies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11850. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.