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Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data

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  • Yucel, Eray M.

Abstract

The effects of a specific religious tradition on the food prices establish the central theme of this paper. In specific, I investigate whether the month Ramadan has any effect on food prices. I perform the analysis under two alternative calendar conventions, namely the Gregorian and Hijri calendars. Under both conventions, the paper reveals the effects of Ramadan, yet these effects are better captured when the latter is used. This highlights the importance of the calendar choice on econometric analysis, on the basis of a simple-yet-genuine socio-economic exercise. Possible benefits from this exercise in pedagogical terms as well as in inflation forecasting are also addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Yucel, Eray M., 2005. "Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data," MPRA Paper 1141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1141
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1141/1/MPRA_paper_1141.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-177, April.
    2. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazi Abrar Hossain & Syed Abul Basher & A.K. Enamul Haque, 2018. "Quantifying the impact of Ramadan on global raw sugar prices," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(4), pages 510-528, June.
    2. Moayedi, Vafa, 2012. "Detecting Islamic Calendar Effects on U.S. Meat Consumption: Is the Muslim Population Larger than Widely Assumed?," MPRA Paper 41554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Muhammad Akmal & Muhammad Usman Abbasi, 2011. "Ramadan Effect on Price Movements: Evidence from Pakistan," Working Papers id:3937, eSocialSciences.
    4. Muhammad Akmal & Muhammad Usman Abbasi, 2010. "Ramadan Effect on Price Movements: Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 32, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Riaz Riazuddin, 2012. "Construction and Seasonal Patterns of Islamic Hijri Calendar Monthly Time Series: An Application to Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Pakistan," Working Papers id:4927, eSocialSciences.
    6. Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Enflasyonda Ramazan Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1414, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seasonality; Ramadan; Food prices; Calendar effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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