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Enflasyonda Ramazan Etkisi

Author

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  • Mustafa Utku Ozmen
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Abstract

[TR] Bu calismada, Ramazan ayinda tuketim kaliplarinin degismesiyle birlikte belirli urun fiyatlarinda yuksek oranli sistematik artislar oldugu gozlemi paralelinde, gida grubu enflasyonu uzerinde bu doneme ozgu etkiler incelenmistir. Ampirik bulgular, Ramazan etkisinin ozellikle kirmizi ve beyaz et, sut ve sut urunlerinde belirgin olduguna ve 2009 yili sonrasinda guclendigine isaret etmistir. Tuketici enflasyonunda gida grubu kaynakli Ramazan etkisinin 0,15 puana kadar ulasabildigi tahmin edilmistir. [EN] In this note, departing from the observation of systematic price hikes in certain products due to a shift in consumption behavior during Ramadan, we investigate the effects of such changes on food inflation. Empirical findings suggest that Ramadan effect is most significant in red and white meat, milk and milk products, while it has strengthened since 2009. Estimated Ramadan effect on consumer inflation through food products may reach 0.15 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Enflasyonda Ramazan Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1414, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1414
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan, 2011. "Ramazan ayı, üretim için de on bir ayın sultanı mı?," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 109-124.
    2. M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2012. "Fiyat Degisimlerinin Yapisi ve Enflasyon," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1205, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Yucel, Eray M., 2005. "Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data," MPRA Paper 1141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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