IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/111052.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does economic policy uncertainty reduce financial inclusion?

Author

Listed:
  • Ozili, Peterson K

Abstract

This paper examines whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) reduces the level of financial inclusion. I predict that high EPU should have a negative effect on the level of financial inclusion. I argue that high EPU will discourage financial institutions from providing basic financial services to low end customers and unbanked adults, and this will lead to a decrease in the level of financial inclusion. Using a sample of 22 countries, I find that EPU does not have a significant impact on financial inclusion. None of the nine indicators of financial inclusion have a significant direct relationship with EPU. Also, I find some evidence that the combined effect of high EPU and high nonperforming loans reduces financial inclusion, particularly through bank branch contraction and a reduction in the use of electronic payments. Meanwhile, the use of formal accounts and credit cards increases in times of high credit supply and high EPU.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozili, Peterson K, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty reduce financial inclusion?," MPRA Paper 111052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111052/1/MPRA_paper_111052.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Brown & Benjamin Guin & Karolin Kirschenmann, 2016. "Microfinance Banks and Financial Inclusion," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 907-946.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Leora Klapper, 2013. "Measuring Financial Inclusion: Explaining Variation in Use of Financial Services across and within Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 279-340.
    4. Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas, 2013. "Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    6. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Leora Klapper, 2013. "Measuring Financial Inclusion: Explaining Variation in Use of Financial Services across and within Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 279-340.
    7. Jayati Ghosh, 2013. "Microfinance and the challenge of financial inclusion for development," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(6), pages 1203-1219.
    8. Panicos Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2006. "Finance, institutions and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 245-260.
    9. Zibei Chen & Minchao Jin, 2017. "Financial Inclusion in China: Use of Credit," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 528-540, December.
    10. Raymond Osi Alenoghena, 2017. "Financial Inclusion and per Capita Income in Africa: Bayesian Var Estimates," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(5), pages 201-221, OCTOBER.
    11. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    12. Anson, Jose & Berthaud, Alexandre & Klapper, Leora & Singer, Dorothe, 2013. "Financial inclusion and the role of the post office," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6630, The World Bank.
    13. Claire Célerier & Adrien Matray, 2019. "Bank-Branch Supply, Financial Inclusion, and Wealth Accumulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(12), pages 4767-4809.
    14. Sharon Collard, 2007. "Toward Financial Inclusion in the UK: Progress and Challenges," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 13-20, February.
    15. A S Camanho & R G Dyson, 2005. "Cost efficiency, production and value-added models in the analysis of bank branch performance," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(5), pages 483-494, May.
    16. García-Kuhnert, Yamileh & Marchica, Maria-Teresa & Mura, Roberto, 2015. "Shareholder diversification and bank risk-taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 602-635.
    17. Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2019. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Effects On Credit And Stability Of Financial Institutions," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 342-347, July.
    18. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mao, Fengfu & Wang, Yuanfan & Zhu, Mengsi, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion, traditional finance system and household entrepreneurship," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Tarazi, Amine, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Size, capital, and liquidity matter," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 102-118.
    2. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Tran, Dung Viet & Nguyen, Cuong, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank’s funding costs: The effects of the financial crisis, Covid-19 pandemic, and market discipline," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Wang, Chih-Wei & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Ming-Chien, 2022. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty and country governance on banks' liquidity creation: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Niu, Geng & Jin, XiaoShu & Wang, Qi & Zhou, Yang, 2022. "Broadband infrastructure and digital financial inclusion in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Ma, Yechi & Ding, Yibing & Bu, Ziwen & Li, Suyang, 2024. "Political freedom and financial inclusion: Unraveling social trust and political rent-seeking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 46-65.
    9. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Lu, Weijie & Niu, Geng & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Individualism and financial inclusion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 268-288.
    11. Jeffrey Ng & Walid Saffar & Janus Jian Zhang, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and loan loss provisions in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 726-777, June.
    12. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    13. Ruan, Jia & Jiang, Ruishi, 2024. "Does digital inclusive finance affect the credit risk of commercial banks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    14. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Kronen Dominik & Belke Ansgar, 2017. "The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(2), pages 93-116, August.
    16. Amit Pandey & Ravi Kiran & Rakesh Kumar Sharma, 2023. "Investigating the Determinants of Financial Inclusion in BRICS Economies: Panel Data Analysis Using Fixed-Effect and Cross-Section Random Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and non-performing loans: The moderating role of bank concentration," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Shahab, Yasir & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Geopolitical, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Do CEO power and board strength matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    20. Chang, Chong-Chuo & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Mon, Khin Thiri, 2024. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the firm's working capital requirements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial inclusion; policy uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; business cycle; non-performing loan; cost efficiency; cost to income ratio; access to finance; formal account; credit cards; debit cards; mobile payments; electronic payment; borrowings; savings bank branch; unbanked adults.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.