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Option Value, Policy Uncertainty, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision

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  • Chen, Yu-Fu
  • Funke, Michael

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment strategies. The paper follows the real options approach, which allows to investigate the value to a firm of waiting to invest and/or disinvest, when payoffs are stochastic due to political uncertainty and investments are partially reversible. Across the board we find that political uncertainty can be very detrimental to FDI decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2003. "Option Value, Policy Uncertainty, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," HWWA Discussion Papers 234, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26373
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    4. Wezel, Torsten, 2004. "Foreign Bank Entry into Emerging Economies: An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants and Risks Predicated on German FDI Data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Yavas, Burhan F. & Malladi, Rama K., 2020. "Foreign direct investment and financial markets influences: Results from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Yuexin Huang & Ruijing Li & Danglun Luo & Rongli Yuan, 2024. "Political uncertainty and litigation efficiency: Evidence from China," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 1020-1055, July.
    7. Yongliang Zhang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim & Ishrat Jahan, 2021. "Nexus between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC Nations: The Mediating Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.
    8. Jan Hendrik, Fisch, 2011. "Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries - The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 517-526, October.
    9. Shu Keng & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Weiping Li & Jim Huangnan Shen, 2020. "Bilateral Rent‐Seeking And Growth Of Fdi Inflow In China: Theory And Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 359-379, April.
    10. Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2021. "The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
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    13. Jaewon Jung, 2022. "The Nexus between Institutional Quality and Global Market Structure: Export versus FDI," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Neeru Chaudhry & Chris Veld, 2023. "Political uncertainty and investments by private and state‐owned enterprises," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 584-614, September.
    15. Lars WANG & Hidekazu ITOH, 2010. "Economic Effects of Information Technology Oriented Joint Ventures in China: A CGE Analysis," EcoMod2004 330600156, EcoMod.
    16. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and bank lending," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 952-977.
    17. Wang, Yizhong & Wei, Yueling & Song, Frank M., 2017. "Uncertainty and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese listed firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 176-200.
    18. Adam Yonce, 2015. "US Corporate Investment Over the Political Cycle," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-37.
    19. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review," MPRA Paper 108017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    21. Rohan Chinchwadkar, 2020. "Political Business Cycles, Elections and Entrepreneurial Finance: A Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 941-954, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real options; Investment; Foreign Direct Investment; Political Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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