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Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence From Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Idrobo, Nicolás
  • Kronick, Dorothy
  • Rodriguez, Francisco

Abstract

Surprising trends in late-counted votes can spark conflict. When late-counted votes led to a narrow incumbent victory in Bolivia last year, fraud accusations followed—with dramatic political consequences. We study the pro-incumbent shift in vote share as the tally progressed, finding that we can explain it without invoking fraud. Two observable characteristics, rurality and region, account for most of the trend. And what looked like a late-breaking surge in the incumbent’s vote share—which electoral observers presented as evidence of foul play—was actually an artifact of methodological and coding errors. Our findings underscore the importance of documenting innocuous explanations for differences between early- and late-counted votes.

Suggested Citation

  • Idrobo, Nicolás & Kronick, Dorothy & Rodriguez, Francisco, 2020. "Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence From Bolivia," MPRA Paper 105118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105118
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    2. Yu, Keming & Jones, M. C., 1997. "A comparison of local constant and local linear regression quantile estimators," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 159-166, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leandro De Magalhaes & Isabel Spirgel-Sinclair, 2021. "Could Regression Discontinuity estimates of incumbency e ects help monitor parliamentary elections? Evidence from Malawi," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/741, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Regression Discontinuity; Electoral Observation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration

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