IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/10316.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indian Economy - TFP or Factor Accumulation: A Comprehensive Growth Accounting Exercise

Author

Listed:
  • Gupta, Abhay

Abstract

Constructing data series from various sources, I do comprehensive growth accounting for the Indian Economy. Without accounting for human capital, total factor productivity differences over time accounts for 48% to 69% of output variation. TFP growth accounts for 35% to 70% of the total GDP growth between 1960 and 2004 depending on measure of human capital. Even after using the Mincer wage regression coefficients, TFP growth still remains significant in explaining the output growth. Starting from a modest rate in 60s Productivity growth dipped and became negative in 70s. This productivity growth rate started accelerating in 80s (much before the reform-period of early 90s) and is estimated between 3% and 4.5% in 2000s. Variance decomposition of growth rates show negative relation because input and output growth accelerated in different periods. Capital-Output ratio seems to transition from one-steady state to another. Capital-per-Worker has reached a constant rate of growth. Accounting estimates, decompositions and period-wise trends point toward Indian growth being triggered by overall efficiency improvement (TFP) rather than input accumulation growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gupta, Abhay, 2007. "Indian Economy - TFP or Factor Accumulation: A Comprehensive Growth Accounting Exercise," MPRA Paper 10316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10316/1/MPRA_paper_10316.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    2. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2004. "Returns to investment in education: a further update," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-134.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    4. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    6. Arvind Virmani, 2004. "Sources of India's economic growth: trends in total factor productivity," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 131, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    7. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    8. Amartya Lahiri & Kei-Mu Yi, 2009. "A Tale of Two States: Maharashtra and West Bengal," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 523-542, July.
    9. Peter J. Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duval, Romain & de la Maisonneuve, Christine, 2010. "Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 64-80, January.
    2. Francisco Queiró, 2022. "Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2061-2100.
    3. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    4. David Lagakos & Benjamin Moll & Tommaso Porzio & Nancy Qian, 2012. "Experience Matters: Human Capital and Development Accounting," Working Papers 2012-021, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    5. Hanushek, Eric A. & Woessmann, Ludger, 2012. "Schooling, educational achievement, and the Latin American growth puzzle," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 497-512.
    6. Klenow, Peter J. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2005. "Externalities and Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 817-861, Elsevier.
    7. Marcelo Soto, 2006. "The Causal Effect of Education on Aggregate Income," Working Papers 0605, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    8. Mendez-Guerra, Carlos, 2014. "On the World Productivity Distribution: Recent Convergence and Divergence Patterns," MPRA Paper 59811, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    9. D׳Erasmo, Pablo N. & Moscoso Boedo, Hernan J. & Şenkal, Aslı, 2014. "Misallocation, informality, and human capital: Understanding the role of institutions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 122-142.
    10. Rui Hao, 2011. "Sources of income differences across Chinese provinces during the reform period: a development accounting exercise," CERDI Working papers halshs-00557001, HAL.
    11. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, March.
    12. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2008. "The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 607-668, September.
    13. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    14. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2006. "The World Technology Frontier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 499-522, June.
    15. Francisco Queiró, 2018. "Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Dynamics," GEE Papers 00116, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Dec 2018.
    16. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2010. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 224-245, January.
    17. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    18. Veloso, Fernando A. & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu, 2004. "The evolution of international output differences (1960-2000): From factors to productivity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 548, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    19. Rui HAO & Zheng WEI, 2009. "Sources Of Income Differences Across Chinese Provinces During The Reform Period: A Development Accounting Exercise," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-29, March.
    20. Balázs Égert & Christine de la Maisonneuve & David Turner, 2022. "A new macroeconomic measure of human capital exploiting PISA and PIAAC: Linking education policies to productivity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1709, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth Accounting; Indian Economy; Mincer Regression; Variance Decomposition; TFP; Factor Accumulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.