IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/10012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition

Author

Listed:
  • Avanesyan, Vahram
  • Freinkman, Lev

Abstract

This paper explores factors of economic decline in the small republican economies of the former USSR. It develops quantitative estimates of the costs of major transitional shocks for Armenia during the early transition, including the direct impact of terms of trade shock (price shock), direct impact of external demand shock (market loss), direct impact of fiscal shock (loss of transfers), as well as secondary effects of all the above shocks, defined as a further decline in macroeconomic aggregates due to a weakening of the overall domestic demand. These estimates are obtained within a single framework, built on a detailed input-output model for Armenia, and using the actual 1987 data. Our estimates suggest that the cumulative impact of the external shocks of the early 90-s amounted to the equivalent of 85 percent of the pre-transition GDP, and both price and demand shocks were highly significant. At the same time, the fiscal shock was much less important in Armenia due to its lower dependence on transfers from the union budget. The actual economic decline in Armenia in the first part of the 90-s was less severe than the model’s projections. We attribute this difference to a positive impact of market reforms on economic incentives.

Suggested Citation

  • Avanesyan, Vahram & Freinkman, Lev, 2002. "Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition," MPRA Paper 10012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10012/1/MPRA_paper_10012.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 1999/073, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Lucjan Orlowski, 1993. "Indirect transfers in trade among former Soviet Union Republics: Sources, patterns and policy responses in the Post‐Soviet period," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 1001-1024.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 1992. "Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates," NBER Working Papers 4112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David G. Tarr, 2017. "The Terms-of-Trade Effects of Moving to World Prices on Countries of the Former Soviet Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 12, pages 271-294, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Tarr, David G., 1993. "How moving to world prices affects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1074, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2003. "Armenia : Poverty Assessment, Volume 2. Main Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 14429, The World Bank Group.
    2. World Bank, 2003. "Armenia : Poverty Assessment, Volume 1. A Summary of Findings," World Bank Publications - Reports 14544, The World Bank Group.
    3. Freinkman, Lev & Polyakov, Evgeny & Revenco, Carolina, 2003. "Armenia’s trade performance in 1995-2002 and the effect of closed borders: a cross-country perspective," MPRA Paper 10065, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marina Bakanova & L303272cio Vinhas de Souza, 2001. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization, The Case of Belarus," International Trade 0108005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Marina Bakanova & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-053/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Langhammer, Rolf J. & Lücke, Matthias, 1995. "Trade among the Post-Soviet states: evolution and policy issues," Kiel Working Papers 708, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Tarr, David, 2007. "Russian WTO accession : what has been accomplished, what can be expected," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4428, The World Bank.
    5. Pomfret, Richard, 2000. "Agrarian Reform in Uzbekistan: Why Has the Chinese Model Failed to Deliver?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 269-284, January.
    6. M. Caruso, 1995. "The first stage of the transition in the economies of the former USSR: asymmetric shocks, macroeconomic imbalances and seigniorage," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(192), pages 85-108.
    7. M. Caruso, 1995. "The first stage of the transition in the economies of the former USSR: asymmetric shocks, macroeconomic imbalances and seigniorage," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(192), pages 85-108.
    8. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    9. Michael Bruno, 1994. "Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 1, Country Studies, pages 19-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pavel Ciaian & Ján Pokrivčák & Dušan Drabik, 2008. "Prečo sú niektoré sektory v tranzitívnych ekonomikách menej reformované ako ostatné? prípad výskumu a vzdelávania v oblasti ekonómie [Why some sectors of transition economies are less reformed than," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(6), pages 819-836.
    11. Auty, R. M., 2003. "Third time lucky for Algeria? Integrating an industrializing oil-rich country into the global economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 37-47.
    12. Campos, Nauro F., 2001. "Will the Future Be Better Tomorrow? The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Revisited," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 663-676, December.
    13. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    14. Gilles Dufrénot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]," Working Papers halshs-00926223, HAL.
    15. Roberto Orro Fernández, 2000. "Has Cuba Definitely Found the Path to Economic Growth?," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 10.
    16. Kazimierz Stanczak, 1994. "Endogenous Market Power and Adjustment under Fixed Exchange Rates: Interpreting the Polish Experience 1990-1991," UCLA Economics Working Papers 714, UCLA Department of Economics.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Neimke, Markus, 2003. "Financial development and economic growth in transition countries," IEE Working Papers 173, Ruhr University Bochum, Institute of Development Research and Development Policy (IEE).
    19. Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "Recent Claims of China's Economic Exceptionalism: Reflections Inspired by WTO Accession," Working Papers 321, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    20. Nauro F. Campos & Yuko Kinoshita, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment as Technology Transferred: Some Panel Evidence from the Transition Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(3), pages 398-419, June.
    21. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(2), pages 261-290, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Armenia; costs of transition; USSR collapse; external shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P30 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.