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Integrating fire risk into the management of forests

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Cosme da Costa Vieira

    (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

In a standard cash-flow data-sheet analysis, the quantification of the impact of exogenous variables and management decisions on the investment’s Net Present Value is limited to only a few scenarios. This perspective is insufficient for an efficient risk management in complex business environments. In this work, I present a dynamic programming model that takes into consideration fire risk. Having applied the model to forest management, I conclude that when fire risk increases, it is optimal for the manager to increase the area used per tree and the cut-off weight of stems. Rather than increasing the business Expected Net Present Value (that, with real interest rate of 3%/year, is between 1.5€/m2 and 2.2€/m2), the optimal strategy decreases the business risk. Additionally, I conclude from the model that there is no private incentive to carry out fire risk prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Cosme da Costa Vieira, 2008. "Integrating fire risk into the management of forests," FEP Working Papers 290, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:290
    as

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    File URL: http://www.fep.up.pt/investigacao/workingpapers/08.09.12_WP290.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    2. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    4. Morck, Randall & Schwartz, Eduardo & Stangeland, David, 1989. "The Valuation of Forestry Resources under Stochastic Prices and Inventories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 473-487, December.
    5. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    6. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk Management; Project Evaluation; Expected Net Present Val;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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