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Scenario discovery for a just low-carbon transition

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Campigotto
  • Marco Catola
  • Andrè Cieplinksi
  • Simone D'Alessandro
  • Tiziano Distefano
  • Pietro Guarnieri
  • Till Heydenreich

Abstract

There is currently no consensus among scholars on how to achieve a just low-carbon transition. To address this issue, this paper subjects a macrosimulation model to an extensive sensitivity analysis and then fits random forests to the simulation results to identify policy combinations that can reduce carbon emissions while promoting income equality. Our find- ings indicate that interventions aimed at supporting low-income groups result in an increase in these groups’ energy demand and emissions, and that this negative effect should be off-set through a faster deployment of renewable energy sources and measures that redistribute income away from top earners. Our analysis also confirms the importance of well-known policies such as carbon taxation and working time reduction. On the other hand, we do not find energy efficiency to be crucial in achieving inequality and emission reduction goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Campigotto & Marco Catola & Andrè Cieplinksi & Simone D'Alessandro & Tiziano Distefano & Pietro Guarnieri & Till Heydenreich, 2024. "Scenario discovery for a just low-carbon transition," Discussion Papers 2024/304, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/304
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ecological macroeconomics; just transition; inequality; scenario discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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