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Estimating The Potential Economic Impact Of Puccinia Graminis F. Sp. Tritici Ttks Race (Ug99) (Wheat Stem Rust)

Author

Listed:
  • Philip L. Paarlberg

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Purdue University, W. Lafayette, IN)

  • Ann Hillberg Seitzinger
  • Trang T. Vo

    (U.S.Department of Agriculture, Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service)

Abstract

An agricultural sector model estimates impacts for hypothetical U.S. outbreaks of Ug99 wheat stem rust. Scenarios describe reductions in wheat output and exports beginning in 2013. The four year losses in the welfare of wheat producers range from $1.7- $11.6 billion (-15% to -107%). In scenarios reflecting alternate assumptions of disease spread, consumers benefit from embargoed crops remaining in the United States. The consumer surplus change varies between a gain of $4.6 billion (0.3%) when importing countries embargo U.S. wheat shipments and turn to other suppliers and a loss of $1.4 billion (-0.1%) when other countries continue importing the reduced supplies of U.S. wheat. Treatment costs are $139 million to $2.4 billion

Suggested Citation

  • Philip L. Paarlberg & Ann Hillberg Seitzinger & Trang T. Vo, 2014. "Estimating The Potential Economic Impact Of Puccinia Graminis F. Sp. Tritici Ttks Race (Ug99) (Wheat Stem Rust)," Working Papers 14-1, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pae:wpaper:14-1
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/164403
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann H., 2003. "Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 53-65, April.
    2. Dubin, H.J. & Brennan, John P., 2009. "Combating stem and leaf rust of wheat: Historical perspective, impacts, and lessons learned," IFPRI discussion papers 910, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wheat Stem Rust; Economic Impacts; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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