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Estimating The Potential Economic Impact Of Puccinia Graminis F. Sp. Tritici Ttks Race (Ug99) (Wheat Stem Rust)

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  • Paarlberg, Philip
  • Seitzinger, Ann
  • Vo, Trang

Abstract

An agricultural sector model estimates impacts for hypothetical U.S. outbreaks of Ug99 wheat stem rust. Scenarios describe reductions in wheat output and exports beginning in 2013. The four year losses in the welfare of wheat producers range from $1.7- $11.6 billion (-15% to -107%). In scenarios reflecting alternate assumptions of disease spread, consumers benefit from embargoed crops remaining in the United States. The consumer surplus change varies between a gain of $4.6 billion (0.3%) when importing countries embargo U.S. wheat shipments and turn to other suppliers and a loss of $1.4 billion (-0.1%) when other countries continue importing the reduced supplies of U.S. wheat. Treatment costs are $139 million to $2.4 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Paarlberg, Philip & Seitzinger, Ann & Vo, Trang, 2014. "Estimating The Potential Economic Impact Of Puccinia Graminis F. Sp. Tritici Ttks Race (Ug99) (Wheat Stem Rust)," Working papers 164403, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:puaewp:164403
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.164403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann H., 2003. "Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 53-65, April.
    2. Dubin, H.J. & Brennan, John P., 2009. "Combating stem and leaf rust of wheat: Historical perspective, impacts, and lessons learned," IFPRI discussion papers 910, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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