IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ott/wpaper/2405e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why don't firms hire young workers during recessions? A replication of Forsythe (The Economic Journal, 2022)

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Créchet

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Canada)

  • Jing Cui

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Canada)

  • Barbara Sadaba

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Antoine Sawyer

    (Department of Economics, Queen’s University)

Abstract

We replicate results of Forsythe (2022) studying the cyclicality of individuals' labor market transitions conditional on their experience. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data and state-level variations in the unemployment rate, this paper shows that the hiring probability of youths is more sensitive to business-cycle conditions than for experienced individuals. We replicate the main results in this paper by reconstructing the dataset using data from the IPUMS-CPS database (Flood et al. (2020)) and recoding the paper's main regressions from scratch. We also conduct a robustness replicability analysis and show that the paper's main results are robust in terms of statistical significance to (i) extending the sample period from 1994-2014 to 1994-2019 and (ii) using MSA-level unemployment variation instead of state-level variation. These extensions reduce the magnitude of the main effects of interest, but the paper's key conclusions are unaffected.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Créchet & Jing Cui & Barbara Sadaba & Antoine Sawyer, 2024. "Why don't firms hire young workers during recessions? A replication of Forsythe (The Economic Journal, 2022)," Working Papers 2405E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:2405e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10393/46603
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Ours, J.C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," Other publications TiSEM b88a88a8-c20f-4145-84c2-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," CEPR Discussion Papers 10376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2013. "Unemployment in the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 385-403, July.
    4. Rivera Drew, Julia A. & Flood, Sarah & Warren, John Robert, 2014. "Making full use of the longitudinal design of the Current Population Survey: Methods for linking records across 16 months\m{1}," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, IOS Press, issue 3, pages 121-144.
    5. Brigitte C. Madrian & Lars John Lefgren, 1999. "A Note on Longitudinally Matching Current Population Survey (CPS) Respondents," NBER Technical Working Papers 0247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pierre Brochu & Jonathan Créchet & Zechuan Deng, 2020. "Labour Market Flows and Worker Trajectories in Canada During COVID-19," Working Papers 2005E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    7. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2011. "Young people and the Great Recession," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 241-267.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Créchet, Jonathan & Cui, Jing & Sabada, Barbara & Sawyer, Antoine, 2024. "Why Don't Firms Hire Young Workers During Recessions? A Replication of Forsythe (The Economic Journal, 2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 163, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    2. Aedin Doris & Donal O'Neill & Olive Sweetman, 2017. "Does Reducing Unemployment Benefits during a Recession Reduce Youth Unemployment? Evidence from a 50% cut in Unemployment Assistance," Economics Department Working Paper Series n279-17.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    3. Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & Jan C. van Ours, 2017. "Revisiting the Okun relationship," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(28), pages 2749-2765, June.
    4. Iva TOMIĆ, 2018. "What drives youth unemployment in Europe? Economic vs non‐economic determinants," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(3), pages 379-408, September.
    5. Gina Cristina Dimian & Liviu Stelian Begu & Josef Jablonsky, 2017. "Unemployment and labour market mismatch in the European Union Countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 13-44.
    6. Bas Weel, 2015. "Unemployment: The Great Recession and Beyond," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 405-413, December.
    7. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Elvira Ciociano & Sergio Destefanis, 2017. "Youth Labour-Market Performance, Institutions and Vet Systems: A Cross-Country Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(1), pages 39-69, March.
    8. Henri Bussink & Tobias Vervliet & Bas Weel, 2022. "The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 170(2), pages 279-303, May.
    9. Bussink, Henri & Vervliet, Tobias & ter Weel, Bas, 2022. "The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 15242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Pierre Brochu & Jonathan Créchet, 2021. "Survey Non-response in Covid-19 Times: The Case of the Labour Force Survey," Working Papers 2109E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    11. Pablo de Pedraza & Martin Guzi & Kea Tijdens, 2020. "Life satisfaction of employees, labour market tightness and matching efficiency," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 341-355, July.
    12. Thomas Bredgaard & Per Kongshøj Madsen, 2018. "Farewell flexicurity? Danish flexicurity and the crisis," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 24(4), pages 375-386, November.
    13. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Elvira Ciociano & Sergio Destefanis, 2017. "The role of the education systems and the labour market institutions in enhancing youth employment: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 1_2017, CRISEI, University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    14. Henri Bussink & Tobias Vervliet & Bas ter Weel, 2022. "The short-term effect of the COVID-19 crisis on employment probabilities of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-030/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Wei-fong Pan, 2018. "Unemployment and confidence in Canada: Evidence from national and regional level data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1111-1123.
    16. Riccardo Zago, 2020. "Job Polarization, Skill Mismatch and the Great Recession," Working papers 755, Banque de France.
    17. Daouli, Joan & Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Lambropoulou, Nikolitsa, 2015. "The ins and outs of Greek unemployment in the Great Depression," MPRA Paper 66299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Joan Daouli & Michael Demoussis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Nikolitsa Lampropoulou, 2015. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Current Greek Economic Crisis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(2), pages 177-196.
    19. Brochu, Pierre & Créchet, Jonathan & Deng, Zechuan, 2020. "Labour market flows and worker trajectories in Canada during COVID-19," CLEF Working Paper Series 32, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    20. Berger, Johannes & Strohner, Ludwig, 2022. "Can labour mobility reduce imbalances in the euro area?," Research Papers 20, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Worker flows; Business cycles; Life cycle.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:2405e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aggey Semenov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deottca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.