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A model of dynamic migration networks: Explaining Turkey's inter-provincial migration flows

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  • Aksoy, Ozan
  • Yıldırım, Sinan

Abstract

In this study we propose a Dirichlet-multinomial regression model and a Bayesian estimation method to analyse dynamic migration networks whereby the nodes are the origins and destinations, and the edges are the number of people migrating between the two over time. We apply this model to analyse 25,632,876 migration instances that take place between Turkey's 81 provinces from 2009 to 2018. We quantify the associations of economic, physical, social, political, and network factors with migration. We find that economic prosperity and population in and the spatial distance between the origin and destination, as well as network characteristics such as reciprocity, province popularity and centrality are important predictors of migration. We also find that electoral distance between provinces and the strength of the AKP (Justice and Development Party) in a province are associated with migration. The proportion of Kurds in a province has no sizeable association with in- and out-migration.

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  • Aksoy, Ozan & Yıldırım, Sinan, 2020. "A model of dynamic migration networks: Explaining Turkey's inter-provincial migration flows," SocArXiv rf724, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:rf724
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/rf724
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