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On the Similarity of Fertility across European National Borders

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  • Ermisch, John

Abstract

The paper introduces to comparative cross-national fertility research a method to formalise what is meant by the TFR’s of countries ‘moving together’. It is based on the estimation of long run fertility relationships which are stationary series (so called ‘cointegrating equations’). Six sets of countries with similar TFR movements within each were identified: Northwest Europe (England and Wales, France, Netherlands and Belgium); (2) Southern Europe (Italy, Spain and Portugal); (3) the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland); (4) Germany and Austria; (5) the Eastern Europe group of Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Estonia); and (6) the group of Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. There are unique features of TFR movements in each region. But Northwest Europe, the Nordic countries and Southern Europe all share a decline in their TFR during the past decade, albeit from different levels of fertility. This strongly suggests that factors influencing fertility during this period do not stem from particular features in each country but broader influences, whether social or economic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ermisch, John, 2023. "On the Similarity of Fertility across European National Borders," SocArXiv nej84, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:nej84
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/nej84
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomáš Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220, June.
    2. John Ermisch, 2021. "English fertility heads south: Understanding the recent decline," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(29), pages 903-916.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    4. David S. Reher, 2015. "Baby booms, busts, and population ageing in the developed world," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(sup1), pages 57-68, April.
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