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English fertility heads south: Understanding the recent decline

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  • John Ermisch

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Background: Fertility in England fell substantially during the past decade. The total fertility rate reached its historically lowest level in 2020. Objective: To improve our understanding of the decline in English fertility by using data on individual women during 2009–2020 from Understanding Society, which is a panel survey of the members of approximately 40,000 households. Methods: Estimation of a model of age and parity-specific birth rates on individual data, including year-effects, and cross-validation of it with external sources from registration data. Translation of the parameter estimates into more easily interpreted concepts such as period parity progression ratios and the total fertility rate (along with the standard errors for each). Results: The decline in first-birth rates appears to be primarily responsible for the decline in the TFR during the past decade, and women with an education below degree level experienced a larger fertility decline. Conclusions: If recent period fertility patterns are sustained, England is embarking on a regime of a high level of childlessness not seen since that among women born in the early 1920s. Contribution: Individual-level panel data is used to estimate a model of parity-specific birth rates, which is cross-validated against registration data and used to provide insights into what lies behind the recent decline in English fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ermisch, 2021. "English fertility heads south: Understanding the recent decline," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(29), pages 903-916.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:45:y:2021:i:29
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.45.29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Tine Kil, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416.
    2. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
    3. Margherita Fort & Nicole Schneeweis & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2016. "Is Education Always Reducing Fertility? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(595), pages 1823-1855, September.
    4. Elizabeth Washbrook & Paul S. Clarke & Fiona Steele, 2014. "Investigating non-ignorable dropout in panel studies of residential mobility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 239-266, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ermisch, John, 2023. "On the Similarity of Fertility across European National Borders," SocArXiv nej84, Center for Open Science.
    2. Beata Osiewalska & Anna Matysiak, 2024. "Two Sides of a Coin: the Relationship Between Work Autonomy and Childbearing," Working Papers 2024-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(12), pages 345-358.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    period fertility; United Kingdom; fertility; parity progression; cross-validation; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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