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Modeling poultry and maize sector interactions in Southern Africa under a changing climate

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  • Mensah, Charles
  • Enahoro, Dolapo

Abstract

• This study explores how regional-level interactions of livestock and crop sectors influence the capacity of a southern Africa sub-region to meet its future demand for livestock-derived foods. • It uses a spatial equilibrium modeling framework to simulate regional trade in poultry and maize products in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. • Model outputs on the demand, production, and trade of poultry products and maize are compared for a baseline and an alternative future scenario representing drought conditions. • The study’s abstraction of a regional approach to livestock and feed sector interactions in the selected region highlights the role of markets in addressing cross-boundary challenges related to food demand expansion and resource management. • Results imply that the study countries could benefit from addressing their growing demands for livestock-derived foods using a harmonized approach. Further, regional livestock markets may offer cushioning effects to the impacts of climate change in at least one of the countries. • However, improved quality data and an enhanced specification of the analytical model to better account for the nuances of livestock and feed trade in the region and for varied scenarios of future climate change will be needed, to extend the current study to practical policy application.

Suggested Citation

  • Mensah, Charles & Enahoro, Dolapo, 2022. "Modeling poultry and maize sector interactions in Southern Africa under a changing climate," SocArXiv ehd3j_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ehd3j_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ehd3j_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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