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Has work from home shifted the US electoral map?

Author

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  • Peter Lambert
  • Chris Larkin

Abstract

Since 2020, the dramatic rise in remote work has coincided with increased geographic mobility in the United States. We examine the relationship between these trends and their effects on the electoral landscape. Using IRS microdata, online job postings, and Census surveys, we find that remote work opportunities concentrate in Democratic-leaning areas, with interstate migration strongly linked to individuals who mostly work from home. Our analysis reveals significant population shifts from Democratic to Republican and swing regions, potentially impacting electoral outcomes in key battleground states.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Lambert & Chris Larkin, 2024. "Has work from home shifted the US electoral map?," CEP Occasional Papers 67, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepops:67
    as

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    File URL: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/occasional/op067.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Bick, Alexander & Blandin, Adam & Mertens, Karel & Rubinton, Hannah, 2024. "Work from Home and Interstate Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 19101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Althoff, Lukas & Eckert, Fabian & Ganapati, Sharat & Walsh, Conor, 2022. "The Geography of Remote Work," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & Karel Mertens & Hannah Rubinton, 2024. "The Impact of Work from Home on Interstate Migration in the U.S," On the Economy 98403, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer, 2021. "COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 287-291, May.
    6. Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons, 2022. "Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1226-1272, April.
    7. Jacob R. Brown & Ryan D. Enos, 2021. "The measurement of partisan sorting for 180 million voters," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 998-1008, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    remote work; geographic mobility; electoral demographics; political geography;
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