Coca Politics: Electoral and Public Response to tough-on-crime policies in Colombia

Governments across the Global South widely rely on tough-on-crime policies to control illicit drug production. While advocates argue these policies are essential for controlling cartels, detractors claim they have harmful consequences and limited effectiveness in reduc- ing drug production. How do the consequences of tough-on-crime policies shape electoral accountability and public support for these measures? This paper addresses this question by examining the electoral impact and public opinion reactions to Colombia’s aerial coca eradication program, one of the main tools for reducing cocaine production. Using data from three presidential elections and employing novel difference-in-difference approaches, I find that aerial spraying decreases the vote share for the incumbent candidate supporting this policy in areas where eradication occurred. Moreover, municipalities, where the policy is concentrated over time, vote more severely against the incumbent in subsequent elections, suggesting that the enduring effects of tough drug policies shape electoral accountability over the long term. To test this mechanism, I conducted a nationally representative survey testing public support for aerial eradication. The results indicate that while support for the policy is highly ideological - with right-wing voters backing it despite its negative impacts - increased engagement with information about its consequences is associated with a decrease in public support. This study highlights how electoral accountability and public opinion shape support for tough-on-crime policies in the Global South, with several implications for security policy and comparative politics literature.