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Multi-population analysis reveals spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird

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Listed:
  • Nater, Chloé Rebecca
  • Burgess, Malcolm D.
  • Coffey, Peter
  • Harris, Bob
  • Lander, Frank
  • Price, David
  • Reed, Mike
  • Robinson, Rob

Abstract

Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modeling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or non-breeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and longer-term population changes of British-breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in non-breeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.

Suggested Citation

  • Nater, Chloé Rebecca & Burgess, Malcolm D. & Coffey, Peter & Harris, Bob & Lander, Frank & Price, David & Reed, Mike & Robinson, Rob, 2022. "Multi-population analysis reveals spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird," EcoEvoRxiv 5ru9f, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:ecoevo:5ru9f
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/5ru9f
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christiaan Both & Sandra Bouwhuis & C. M. Lessells & Marcel E. Visser, 2006. "Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird," Nature, Nature, vol. 441(7089), pages 81-83, May.
    2. Jonah Gabry & Daniel Simpson & Aki Vehtari & Michael Betancourt & Andrew Gelman, 2019. "Visualization in Bayesian workflow," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(2), pages 389-402, February.
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