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Dynamic Analysis of the German Day-Ahead Electricity Spot Market

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  • Marius Paschen

    (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of day-ahead spot prices in the German electricity spot market due to positive structural shocks in wind and solar power. It uses a dynamic structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the related structural impulse response functions. The estimates suggest that wind power shocks have a more prolonged negative effect on spot prices than solar power shocks. These may be explained by signifcant autocorrelations of wind power for larger lags. The total negative merit order effect of a solar power shock, however, is larger. One reason might be that solar power shocks coincide with demand peaks. Past empirical results show differences in the total average negative merit order effects. The inherently dynamic nature of wind and solar power could explain these dfferences because the dynamics, which are ignored by past studies on the subject using static ordinary least squares estimations, could be transferred to the merit order effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Paschen, 2014. "Dynamic Analysis of the German Day-Ahead Electricity Spot Market," Working Papers V-368-14, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:old:dpaper:368
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    Cited by:

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    4. Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2018. "The Effects of German Wind and Solar Electricity on French Spot Price Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 258, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Renato Fernandes & Isabel Soares, 2022. "Reviewing Explanatory Methodologies of Electricity Markets: An Application to the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Frondel, Manuel & Kaeding, Matthias & Sommer, Stephan, 2022. "Market premia for renewables in Germany: The effect on electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Marius Paschen, 2016. "The effect of intermittent renewable supply on the forward premium in German electricity markets," Working Papers V-397-16, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2016.
    8. Bigerna, Simona, 2018. "Estimating temperature effects on the Italian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 257-269.
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    12. Rainer Baule & Michael Naumann, 2021. "Volatility and Dispersion of Hourly Electricity Contracts on the German Continuous Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    13. Gürtler, Marc & Paulsen, Thomas, 2018. "The effect of wind and solar power forecasts on day-ahead and intraday electricity prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 150-162.
    14. Ehsani, Behdad & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Charlin, Laurent, 2024. "Price forecasting in the Ontario electricity market via TriConvGRU hybrid model: Univariate vs. multivariate frameworks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    15. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    16. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2020. "Impact of Solar and Wind Prices on the Integrated Global Electricity Spot and Options Markets: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 337-353.
    17. Tiantian Liu & Xie He & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Influence of Fluctuations in Fossil Fuel Commodities on Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot and Futures Markets in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
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    19. Georg Wolff & Stefan Feuerriegel, 2019. "Emissions Trading System of the European Union: Emission Allowances and EPEX Electricity Prices in Phase III," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Market; Spot Prices; Wind and Solar Power Dynamics; Structural Vector Autoregressive Model; Structural Impulse Response Functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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