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What drives core inflation? A dynamic factor model analysis of tradable and nontradable prices

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Abstract

I develop a new estimate of core inflation for New Zealand and Australia based on a dynamic factor model. By using an over-identification restriction, the factors of the model are classified as tradable and nontradable factors. This innovation allows us to examine the relative contributions of tradable and nontradable prices towards core inflation. The results show that core inflation in both countries is primarily driven by the nontradable factor. The nontradable factor also explains significantly more of the variance in headline inflation relative to the tradable factor. Finally, both the tradable and nontradable factors show similar profiles across both countries suggesting common drivers.

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  • Michael Kirker, 2010. "What drives core inflation? A dynamic factor model analysis of tradable and nontradable prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2010/13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005. "A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-560, June.
    2. Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng & Simon Potter, 2013. "Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1811-1817, December.
    3. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Forni, Mario & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
    5. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Günes Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    4. Satish Ranchhod, 2013. "Measures of New Zealand core inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 76, pages 3-11, March.
    5. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2014. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Icelandic Core Inflation," Economics wp67, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    6. Nicholas Sander, 2013. "Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Aðalheiður Ó. Guðlaugsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro, 2018. "The common component of the CPI - A trendy measure of Icelandic underlying inflation," Economics wp78, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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